Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station
Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ).
Below are Charts comparing our onsite ( WxSim ) Forecast to our ( Actual Observations ) by Day + 7 Days.
( Note : Forecast Accuracy Comparison Records for the Charts below only began 03 July 2021 ( 2021-07-03 ) )
Forecast Temperature Comparison - ( Realtime Rolling 7 Days (+) Forecast Ahead )
Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - by GFS Runs ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z )
| Note: Although GFS Runs are only made available every 6 Hours, we elect to ( re-forecast, using WxSim ) every 3 Hours in order to adjust and predict the next 3 hours based on our onsite ( recent / current ) conditions. The Graph below contains a greyed out series called ( WxSim Fcst Temp ), clicking it will display the current ( 3 Hourly - re-forecast ) in order to compare against the original GFS Runs. Note : For additional Graphs of ( Max / Min ) Temp Delta - click here to view in full screen |
Forecast - Mean Absolute Error - Check ( MAE )
| This Graph compares the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) from the forecasts generated each day since 09 Dec 2019. MAE is the mean absolute temperature error for the data analyzed, during the forecast process in ( WXSIM / Wret ) and is displayed in degree °C and °F. Also compares the Mix Percentage of WxSim-Lite ( bias corrections ) used in our final WxSim Modelling for the forecasts generated each day since 09 Dec 2019. The Current Target is set to 55% influence on temperature and dew point from WXSIM-Lite data, changed from 46% to 55% on Sunday 29th August 2021. |
| Current Records as of Sat 20 Apr 2024 | MAE : 0.82 °C | 1.48 °F | WXSIMLite MIX Percent : 51.5 % Min MAE WAS 0.75 °C | 1.35 °F ON Tue 21 Nov 2023 Max MAE WAS 1.90 °C | 3.42 °F ON Sun 09 Jan 2022 Max MIX Percent WAS 63.0 % ON Fri 25 Sep 2020 |
| WXSIM - Learning Routine Runs from WRET view in full screen Note: The Charts below display the Daily Difference between ( MAE - pred ), ( MAE - raw ) and ( MAE, pred, raw ). The goal is for the ( MAE ) to get smaller than the ( raw ), and hopefully almost as small as the ( pred ). |
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MAE is the mean absolute temperature error for the data analyzed. pred is the approximate MAE the run would have had with the new bias corrections (and likely value for subsequent runs). raw is the approximate MAE the analyzed data would have had with no bias corrections (and = MAE if none were in effect). Some Stats since Records began on the 09th of Dec 2019 MAE has been equal to pred ( 118 ) Times. Select Series ( MAE (=) Pred ) below Chart to view when they occurred. ( Value set as 0.5 in order to highlight time of occurrence ) MAE has never been less than pred. |
WxSim ErrDate & ErrDep (Autolearn - Error Correction Graphs) Run at 03:15 each day.
WXSIM - ErrDate - Graph
Last Uploaded on : 20 April 2024 17:13:39. |
WXSIM - ErrDep - Graph
Last Uploaded on : 20 April 2024 17:13:39. |
WXSIM Forecast WRET Image |
WxSim Auto Generated Image above ( ./data/latest.png ) Last Uploaded on : 20 April 2024 17:13:39.
WXSIM Onsite Forecast - GFS / ECMWF Data Check ( Forecasts run 3 Hrly and GFS runs are 6 Hrly )
Next 3hr ( 00z ) Beaumaris Onsite WxSim Re-Forecast due on ( Sat 20 at 20:25 AEST )WxSim-EUROMIX ( 100 % GFS Run ( 2024-04-20-00 Z ) and 0 % ECMWF Mix Run ( 18 Z ))
| GFS Runs ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z ) 3 Hrly Check ( WXSIM-Lite Data / by Bohler ) |
 All Good - Bohler WXSIM-Lite - Last was ( 2024-04-20-00 z ) and Last Should Be ( 2024-04-20-00 z ) |
| GFS Runs ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z ) 3 Hrly Check ( WXSIMate Data / Current Run : McMahon was Used ) |
| McMahon GFS-Data ( 00 z ) - Available McMahon GFS-Adv ( 00 z ) - Available |
