Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station


Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ).
Below are Charts comparing our onsite ( WxSim ) Forecast to our ( Actual Observations ) by Day + 7 Days.
( Note : Forecast Accuracy Comparison Records for the Charts below only began 03 July 2021 ( 2021-07-03 ) )


Forecast Temperature Comparison - ( Realtime Rolling 7 Days (+) Forecast Ahead )

 

Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - by GFS Runs  ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z )


Note: Although GFS Runs are only made available every 6 Hours, we elect to ( re-forecast, using WxSim ) every 3 Hours in order to adjust and predict the next 3 hours based on our onsite ( recent / current ) conditions. The Graph below contains a greyed out series called ( WxSim Fcst Temp ), clicking it will display the current ( 3 Hourly - re-forecast ) in order to compare against the original GFS Runs. Note : For additional Graphs of ( Max / Min ) Temp Delta - click here to view in full screen




Forecast - Mean Absolute Error - Check ( MAE )


This Graph compares the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) from the forecasts generated each day since 09 Dec 2019. MAE is the mean absolute temperature error for the data analyzed, during the forecast process in ( WXSIM / Wret ) and is displayed in degree °C and °F. Also compares the Mix Percentage of WxSim-Lite ( bias corrections ) used in our final WxSim Modelling for the forecasts generated each day since 09 Dec 2019. The Current Target is set to 55% influence on temperature and dew point from WXSIM-Lite data, changed from 46% to 55% on Sunday 29th August 2021.

Current Records as of  Fri 21 Jun 2024  |  MAE : 0.83 °C | 1.49 °F  |  WXSIMLite MIX Percent : 50.7 %
MAE is ( 0.01 °C | 0.01 °F ) Higher than Yesterday. 0.01 °C  /  0.01 °F Higher than Yesterday.
Min MAE  WAS  0.75 °C | 1.35 °F  ON  Tue 21 Nov 2023
Max MAE  WAS  1.90 °C | 3.42 °F  ON  Sun 09 Jan 2022
Max MIX Percent  WAS  63.0 %  ON  Fri 25 Sep 2020
Note : Drag Mouse over an area on charts to zoom into more detail.  view in full screen

WXSIM - Learning Routine Runs from WRET  view in full screen
Note: The Charts below display the Daily Difference between ( MAE - pred ), ( MAE - raw ) and ( MAE, pred, raw ).
The goal is for the ( MAE ) to get smaller than the ( raw ), and hopefully almost as small as the ( pred ).
  MAE  is the mean absolute temperature error for the data analyzed.
  pred  is the approximate MAE the run would have had with the new bias corrections (and likely value for subsequent runs).
  raw  is the approximate MAE the analyzed data would have had with no bias corrections (and = MAE if none were in effect).
  Some Stats since Records began on the 09th of Dec 2019
  MAE  has been equal to  pred  ( 153 )  Times.
  Select Series ( MAE (=) Pred ) below Chart to view when they occurred.  ( Value set as 0.5 in order to highlight time of occurrence )

  MAE  has never been less than  pred.




WxSim ErrDate & ErrDep (Autolearn - Error Correction Graphs) Run at 03:15 each day.

WXSIM - ErrDate - Graph
WXSIM - ErrDate - Graph
Last Uploaded on : 21 June 2024 23:13:16.
WXSIM - ErrDep - Graph
WXSIM - ErrDep - Graph
Last Uploaded on : 21 June 2024 23:13:16.
View - Graph - Archives  Updated at 05:25 each day.

WXSIM Forecast WRET Image

WXSIM Forecast Analysis Display (WRET Image)
WxSim Auto Generated Image above ( ./data/latest.png ) Last Uploaded on : 21 June 2024 23:13:16.

WXSIM Onsite Forecast - GFS / ECMWF Data Check ( Forecasts run 3 Hrly and GFS runs are 6 Hrly )

  Next 6hr ( 06z ) Beaumaris Onsite WxSim Forecast due on ( Fri 21 at 23:25 AEST )
  WxSim-EUROMIX ( 100 % GFS Run ( 2024-06-21-00 Z ) and 0 % ECMWF Mix Run ( 00 Z ))
 GFS Runs ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z ) 3 Hrly Check ( WXSIM-Lite Data / by Bohler )
  1  All Good - Bohler WXSIM-Lite - Last was ( 2024-06-21-00 z ) and Last Should Be ( 2024-06-21-00 z )
 GFS Runs ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z ) 3 Hrly Check ( WXSIMate Data / Current Run : McMahon was Used )
  0  McMahon GFS-Data ( 00 z ) - Available    0  McMahon GFS-Adv ( 00 z ) - Available
Please Note : Admin is automatically emailed in the event a GFS Run is not available for injection into our onsite WxSim Forecast.