Beaumaris Onsite Forecast Risk Assessment, initialized at 20:00 16 Feb, 2026
unavailable Significant Rain
There is a 80 percent chance of rain Tuesday Night. The rain will be heavy at times. Total rainfall of between 10 and 20 millimeters are possible.
* THIS FORECAST WAS MADE IN AUTOMATED MODE AND MAY BE LESS ACCURATE THAN OTHERWISE *

Beaumaris Onsite Forecast Risk Assessment (NEW)


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Latest Volcano News

Sabancaya Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: PUFF EMISSION to 28000 ft (8500 m)

Published: February 16, 2026, 8:00 pm
VolcanoImg

Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Buenos Aires warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 28000 ft (8500 m) altitude or flight level 280 and is moving at 10 kts in W direction.
The full report is as follows:

FVAG01 at 08:45 UTC, 16/02/26 from SABM
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20260216/0850Z

VAAC: BUENOS AIRES

VOLCANO: SABANCAYA 354006
PSN: S1547 W07150

AREA: PERU

SUMMIT ELEV: 19576 FT [5967 M]

ADVISORY NR: 2026/083

INFO SOURCE: GOES-E. GFS.

AVIATION COLOUR CODE: NOT GIVEN

ERUPTION DETAILS: PUFF EMISSION

OBS VA DTG: 16/0710Z

OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL280 S1543 W07156 - S1545 W07150
- S1551 W07150 - S1554 W07205 - S1543 W07204 -
S1543 W07156 MOV W 10KT

FCST VA CLD +6 HR: 16/1310Z SFC/FL280 S1540 W07301
- S1543 W07154 - S1548 W07150 - S1551 W07149 -
S1601 W07301 - S1540 W07301

FCST VA CLD +12 HR: 16/1910Z SFC/FL280 S1546
W07153 - S1553 W07150 - S1600 W07158 - S1617
W07310 - S1559 W07326 - S1546 W07153

FCST VA CLD +18 HR: 17/0110Z SFC/FL280 S1550
W07150 - S1628 W07305 - S1559 W07357 - S1550
W07150

RMK: VA PULSE DETECTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
PARTIALLY HIDDEN BY MET CLDS MOV W. FL BASED ON
MOTION AND GFS MODEL ...SMN

NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20260216/1450Z=

Shiveluch Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: POSS ERUPTION OBS AT 20260216/0720Z FL280 EXTD NE OBS VA DTG: 16/0730Z to 28000 ft (8500 m)

Published: February 16, 2026, 7:00 pm
VolcanoImg
Satellite image of Shiveluch volcano on 16 Feb 2026

Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Tokyo warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 28000 ft (8500 m) altitude or flight level 280 and is moving at 25 kts in NE direction.
The full report is as follows:

FVFE01 at 07:50 UTC, 16/02/26 from RJTD
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20260216/0750Z
VAAC: TOKYO
VOLCANO: SHEVELUCH 300270
PSN: N5639 E16122
AREA: RUSSIA
SOURCE ELEV: 3283M AMSL
ADVISORY NR: 2026/56
INFO SOURCE: HIMAWARI-9
ERUPTION DETAILS: POSS ERUPTION OBS AT 20260216/0720Z FL280 EXTD NE
OBS VA DTG: 16/0730Z
OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL280 N5642 E16119 - N5659 E16131 - N5648 E16143 -
N5636 E16122 MOV NE 25KT
FCST VA CLD +6 HR: 16/1330Z SFC/FL280 N5724 E16528 - N5807 E16235 -
N5850 E16406
FCST VA CLD +12 HR: 16/1930Z SFC/FL280 N5818 E17016 - N5755 E17024 -

N5909 E16302 - N6036 E16426
FCST VA CLD +18 HR: 17/0130Z SFC/FL280 N6008 W17940 - N5941 W17935 -

N5920 E16258 - N6214 E16359 - N6040 E16949
RMK: SOME PART OF VA OBSCURED BY MET CLOUD.
NXT ADVISORY: 20260216/1200Z=

Santiaguito Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: VA CLD OBSD. to 13000 ft (4000 m)

Published: February 16, 2026, 5:00 pm
VolcanoImg

Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Washington warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 13000 ft (4000 m) altitude or flight level 130 .
The full report is as follows:

FVXX21 at 05:44 UTC, 16/02/26 from KNES
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20260216/0542Z

VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: SANTA MARIA 342030
PSN: N1445 W09133

AREA: GUATEMALA

SOURCE ELEV: 12287 FT AMSL

ADVISORY NR: 2026/106

INFO SOURCE: GOES-19. WEBCAM. NWP MODELS.

ERUPTION DETAILS: VA CLD OBSD.

OBS VA DTG: 16/0510Z

OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL130 N1446 W09133 - N1444 W09133
- N1438 W09144 - N1443 W09147 - N1446 W09133 MOV
W 15KT

FCST VA CLD +6HR: 16/1100Z SFC/FL130 N1446 W09133
- N1445 W09132 - N1431 W09148 - N1438 W09153 -
N1446 W09133

FCST VA CLD +12HR: 16/1700Z NO VA EXP

FCST VA CLD +18HR: 16/2300Z NO VA EXP

RMK: VA CLD OBSD BY STLT MOVG WSW FM THE SUMMIT.
NOTHING SEEN ON WEBCAM DUE TO WX CLD CVR OBSCG
WEBCAM. FL ESTD FM NWP MDLS. NWP MDLS FCST VA TO
MOV SW BY T+6HRS. ...HOSLEY

NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20260216/1145Z

Canlaon Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: ERUPTION AT 20260216/0510Z FL090 EXTD SW REPORTED OBS VA DTG: 16/0520Z

Published: February 16, 2026, 4:45 pm
VolcanoImg
Satellite image of Canlaon volcano on 16 Feb 2026

Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Tokyo (VAAC) issued the following report:

FVFE01 at 05:38 UTC, 16/02/26 from RJTD
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20260216/0538Z
VAAC: TOKYO
VOLCANO: KANLAON 272020
PSN: N1025 E12308
AREA: PHILIPPINES
SOURCE ELEV: 2435M AMSL
ADVISORY NR: 2026/23
INFO SOURCE: HIMAWARI-9 PHIVOLCS
ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION AT 20260216/0510Z FL090 EXTD SW REPORTED
OBS VA DTG: 16/0520Z
OBS VA CLD: VA NOT IDENTIFIABLE FM SATELLITE DATA WIND FL090 080/21KT

FCST VA CLD +6 HR: NOT AVBL
FCST VA CLD +12 HR: NOT AVBL
FCST VA CLD +18 HR: NOT AVBL
RMK: WE WILL ISSUE FURTHER ADVISORY IF VA IS DETECTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
NXT ADVISORY: NO FURTHER ADVISORIES=

Semeru Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: ERUPTION LAST REPORTED AT 15/2256Z EST VA DTG: 16/0440Z

Published: February 16, 2026, 4:00 pm
VolcanoImg

Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Darwin (VAAC) issued the following report:

FVAU02 at 04:57 UTC, 16/02/26 from ADRM
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20260216/0500Z
VAAC: DARWIN
VOLCANO: SEMERU 263300
PSN: S0806 E11255
AREA: INDONESIA
SOURCE ELEV: 3657M AMSL
ADVISORY NR: 2026/190
INFO SOURCE: CVGHM, HIMAWARI-9
ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION LAST REPORTED AT 15/2256Z
EST VA DTG: 16/0440Z
EST VA CLD: SFC/FL150 S0808 E11251 - S0802 E11253 - S0759
E11320 - S0807 E11325 - S0817 E11317 MOV E 15KT
FCST VA CLD +6 HR: 16/1040Z SFC/FL150 S0807 E11251 - S0801
E11252 - S0757 E11319 - S0807 E11325 - S0817 E11317
FCST VA CLD +12 HR: 16/1640Z SFC/FL150 S0803 E11253 - S0800
E11320 - S0809 E11324 - S0819 E11314 - S0808 E11251
FCST VA CLD +18 HR: 16/2240Z SFC/FL150 S0808 E11251 - S0802
E11253 - S0800 E11320 - S0808 E11325 - S0819 E11314
RMK: VA NOT IDENTIFIABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO MET
CLOUD COVER. VA EMISSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING. VA
HEIGHT AND MOVEMENT BASED ON GROUND REPORTS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE.
NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN 20260216/1100Z=

Mayon Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: ERUPTION AT 20260216/0357Z VA CLD UNKNOWN REPORTED OBS VA DTG: 16/0400Z

Published: February 16, 2026, 3:30 pm
VolcanoImg

Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Tokyo (VAAC) issued the following report:

FVFE01 at 04:18 UTC, 16/02/26 from RJTD
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20260216/0418Z
VAAC: TOKYO
VOLCANO: MAYON 273030
PSN: N1315 E12341
AREA: PHILIPPINES
SOURCE ELEV: 2462M AMSL
ADVISORY NR: 2026/181
INFO SOURCE: HIMAWARI-9 PHIVOLCS
ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION AT 20260216/0357Z VA CLD UNKNOWN REPORTED
OBS VA DTG: 16/0400Z
OBS VA CLD: VA NOT IDENTIFIABLE FM SATELLITE DATA WIND FL180 100/13KT

FCST VA CLD +6 HR: NOT AVBL
FCST VA CLD +12 HR: NOT AVBL
FCST VA CLD +18 HR: NOT AVBL
RMK: WE WILL ISSUE FURTHER ADVISORY IF VA IS DETECTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
NXT ADVISORY: NO FURTHER ADVISORIES=

Ibu Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: VA TO FL070 OBS AT 16/0340Z MOV SW OBS VA DTG: 16/0340Z to 7000 ft (2100 m)

Published: February 16, 2026, 3:00 pm
VolcanoImg
Satellite image of Ibu volcano on 16 Feb 2026

Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Darwin warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 7000 ft (2100 m) altitude or flight level 070 .
The full report is as follows:

FVAU01 at 03:57 UTC, 16/02/26 from ADRM
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20260216/0400Z
VAAC: DARWIN
VOLCANO: IBU 268030
PSN: N0129 E12738
AREA: INDONESIA
SOURCE ELEV: 1325M AMSL
ADVISORY NR: 2026/190
INFO SOURCE: HIMAWARI-9, CVGHM
ERUPTION DETAILS: VA TO FL070 OBS AT 16/0340Z MOV SW
OBS VA DTG: 16/0340Z
OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL070 N0134 E12738 - N0131 E12742 - N0106
E12723 - N0106 E12709 - N0124 E12708 MOV SW 10KT
FCST VA CLD +6 HR: 16/0940Z SFC/FL070 N0133 E12738 - N0131
E12743 - N0103 E12726 - N0107 E12714 - N0118 E12710
FCST VA CLD +12 HR: 16/1540Z SFC/FL070 N0130 E12742 - N0055
E12721 - N0109 E12702 - N0133 E12737
FCST VA CLD +18 HR: 16/2140Z SFC/FL070 N0133 E12738 - N0129
E12742 - N0102 E12716 - N0119 E12703
RMK: DISCRETE VA EMISSIONS OBS ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
VA EMISSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING. VA HEIGHT AND
MOVEMENT BASED ON GROUND REPORTS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN 20260216/1000Z=

Kilauea volcano update: 42nd lava fountaining episode in progress

Published: February 16, 2026, 2:51 pm
VolcanoImg
Tall lava fountains from Kilauea volcano during the 42nd lava-fountaining episode (image: HVO webcam)

The latest lava fountaining episode has started at the Halema'uma'u summit vents. It marks the 42nd episode since the series began almost a year ago in Dec 2024.
The volcano observatory reports: "Two fountains are present both approaching or exceeding 1000 feet (300 meters) in height. The fountains are producing heat and ash that is driving the plume rising from the eruption site."
Kīlauea summit livestream video that show eruptive lava fountains are available here:
https://www.hawaiitracker.com/

Sangay Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: VA EMS ONGOING to 20000 ft (6100 m)

Published: February 16, 2026, 1:00 pm
VolcanoImg

Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Washington warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 20000 ft (6100 m) altitude or flight level 200 .
The full report is as follows:

FVXX25 at 01:49 UTC, 16/02/26 from KNES
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20260216/0145Z

VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: SANGAY 352090
PSN: S0200 W07820

AREA: ECUADOR

SOURCE ELEV: 17342 FT AMSL

ADVISORY NR: 2026/174

INFO SOURCE: GOES-19. VONA. NWP MODELS.

ERUPTION DETAILS: VA EMS ONGOING

OBS VA DTG: 16/0120Z

OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL200 S0156 W07837 - S0159 W07820
- S0200 W07820 - S0203 W07837 - S0156 W07837 MOV
W 10KT

FCST VA CLD +6HR: 16/0730Z SFC/FL200 S0156 W07837
- S0159 W07820 - S0200 W07820 - S0203 W07837 -
S0156 W07837

FCST VA CLD +12HR: 16/1330Z SFC/FL200 S0156
W07837 - S0200 W07820 - S0200 W07820 - S0203
W07838 - S0156 W07837

FCST VA CLD +18HR: 16/1930Z SFC/FL200 S0156
W07837 - S0200 W07820 - S0201 W07820 - S0203
W07837 - S0156 W07837

RMK: VA DETECTED ON STLT MOVG W OF SUMMIT,
HOTSPOT IN SWIR. VONA INDICATES VA EMS. NO CHG
FCST TO MDL WINDS AT FL NXT 18 HR. ...KONON

NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20260216/0800Z