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Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station


Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ).
Below are Tables comparing our onsite ( WxSim ) Forecast to our ( Actual Observations ) by Day + 7 Days.


Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - by GFS Runs  ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z )


WxSim vs Actual ( Min and Max ) Temperature Comparison by Day Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
All WxSim latest.csv data is injected into MySql Tables for each GFSz Run
( Minimum and Maximum Temps are Daily Min/Max from WxSim Temperature field )
( Note : Forecast Accuracy Comparison Records for the Tables below only began 03 July 2021 ( 2021-07-03 ) )

Select GFS Run :

Afternoon - GFS 00z Run - ( 17:15 AEST )

      Min Date :   Sat 03 Jul 2021              Max Date :   Mon 15 Apr 2024    ( on Record )
Select Dates :                         
            Total Days Selected :               Total Days on Record : 1018

( If ± 2.0° C          ) or ( if ± 5.0° C          ) or ( if between   +/-   )
Note : Use Scroll bar below Table to View out to 7 Plus Days

Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4 Day +5 Day +6 Day +7
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date  WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act 
2024-04-15 21.2 11.1 16.5 12.9 17.1 11.3 18.3 9.9 17.9 9.5 20.3 7.4 20.9 8.6 18.8 7.8
2024-04-14 21.3 -3.4 24.7 9.1 -2.3 11.4 21.2 11.1 16.8 11.5 14.3 11.3 17.3 9.6 17.4 9.5 18.8 6.7 18.6 8.0
2024-04-13 20.4 -1.5 21.9 10.7 -0.9 11.6 21.3 -3.4 24.7 9.1 -2.3 11.4 20.9 10.5 16.9 11.2 16.1 10.3 19.5 8.7 17.8 7.5 18.7 8.6
2024-04-12 19.3 -1.4 20.7 9.5 1.4 8.1 20.4 -1.5 21.9 11.1 -0.5 11.6 21.1 -3.6 24.7 9.6 -1.8 11.4 20.7 9.5 15.2 11.6 16.4 10.9 18.5 9.5 18.0 9.1
2024-04-11 18.3 -0.2 18.5 7.3 -0.4 7.7 19.3 -1.4 20.7 9.5 1.4 8.1 19.8 -2.1 21.9 10.2 -1.4 11.6 21.1 -3.6 24.7 10.1 -1.3 11.4 20.9 10.7 14.5 9.5 18.4 9.6 19.4 7.6
2024-04-10 19.2 -0.6 19.8 6.1 -1.9 8.0 18.3 -0.2 18.5 7.3 -0.4 7.7 19.3 -1.4 20.7 9.6 1.5 8.1 19.8 -2.1 21.9 10.1 -1.5 11.6 20.7 -4.0 24.7 9.2 -2.2 11.4 21.2 11.3 14.8 11.1 15.8 9.4
2024-04-09 17.3 0.2 17.1 7.7 0.3 7.4 19.2 -0.6 19.8 6.1 -1.9 8.0 18.0 -0.5 18.5 7.3 -0.4 7.7 19.5 -1.2 20.7 9.7 1.6 8.1 20.5 -1.4 21.9 9.6 -2.0 11.6 22.1 -2.6 24.7 10.4 -1.0 11.4 21.8 12.4 20.2 11.5
2024-04-08 20.3 -1.7 22.0 12.2 2.5 9.7 17.3 0.2 17.1 8.6 1.2 7.4 19.6 -0.2 19.8 7.7 -0.3 8.0 17.6 -0.9 18.5 8.5 0.8 7.7 18.7 -2.0 20.7 10.4 2.3 8.1 20.5 -1.4 21.9 10.4 -1.2 11.6 20.4 -4.3 24.7 10.8 -0.6 11.4 16.7 13.3
2024-04-07 17.3 -1.5 18.8 15.0 1.8 13.2 20.3 -1.7 22.0 12.2 2.5 9.7 16.7 -0.4 17.1 8.4 1.0 7.4 19.1 -0.7 19.8 7.1 -0.9 8.0 17.1 -1.4 18.5 9.2 1.5 7.7 20.8 0.1 20.7 8.7 0.6 8.1 21.1 -0.8 21.9 9.7 -1.9 11.6 14.6 -10.1 24.7 12.4 1.0 11.4
2024-04-06 19.2 -0.4 19.6 13.3 1.4 11.9 16.8 -2.0 18.8 14.7 1.5 13.2 19.8 -2.2 22.0 11.6 1.9 9.7 16.6 -0.5 17.1 7.8 0.4 7.4 18.1 -1.7 19.8 9.1 1.1 8.0 18.3 -0.2 18.5 9.0 1.3 7.7 19.6 -1.1 20.7 8.8 0.7 8.1 16.4 -5.5 21.9 9.6 -2.0 11.6
Results  WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act 
# Succ 7 6 6 5 4 6 3 5 3 2 2 3 1 2 0 1
% Succ 87.5 75.0 85.7 71.4 66.7 100.0 60.0 100.0 75.0 50.0 66.7 100.0 50.0 100.0 0.0 100.0
Ave Error 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.7 1.2 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.9 2.6 1.3 10.1 1.0
Net Error -1.3 0.1 -1.2 0.0 -1.4 -0.2 -1.7 -0.3 -2.2 -0.1 -1.3 -0.5 -2.6 -1.3 -10.1 1.0
Std Dev 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.1 0.8 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0

Forecast - Mean Absolute Error - Check ( MAE )


This Graph compares the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) from the forecasts generated each day since 09 Dec 2019. MAE is the mean absolute temperature error for the data analyzed, during the forecast process in ( WXSIM / Wret ) and is displayed in degree °C and °F. Also compares the Mix Percentage of WxSim-Lite ( bias corrections ) used in our final WxSim Modelling for the forecasts generated each day since 09 Dec 2019. The Current Target is set to 55% influence on temperature and dew point from WXSIM-Lite data, changed from 46% to 55% on Sunday 29th August 2021.

Current Records as of  Tue 16 Apr 2024  |  MAE : 0.86 °C | 1.55 °F  |  WXSIMLite MIX Percent : 51.5 %
Min MAE  WAS  0.75 °C | 1.35 °F  ON  Tue 21 Nov 2023
Max MAE  WAS  1.90 °C | 3.42 °F  ON  Sun 09 Jan 2022
Max MIX Percent  WAS  63.0 %  ON  Fri 25 Sep 2020
Note : Drag Mouse over an area on charts to zoom into more detail.  view in full screen

WXSIM - Learning Routine Runs from WRET  view in full screen
Note: The Charts below display the Daily Difference between ( MAE - pred ), ( MAE - raw ) and ( MAE, pred, raw ).
The goal is for the ( MAE ) to get smaller than the ( raw ), and hopefully almost as small as the ( pred ).
  MAE  is the mean absolute temperature error for the data analyzed.
  pred  is the approximate MAE the run would have had with the new bias corrections (and likely value for subsequent runs).
  raw  is the approximate MAE the analyzed data would have had with no bias corrections (and = MAE if none were in effect).
  Some Stats since Records began on the 09th of Dec 2019
  MAE  has been equal to  pred  ( 114 )  Times.
  Select Series ( MAE (=) Pred ) below Chart to view when they occurred.  ( Value set as 0.5 in order to highlight time of occurrence )

  MAE  has never been less than  pred.




WxSim ErrDate & ErrDep (Autolearn - Error Correction Graphs) Run at 03:15 each day.

WXSIM - ErrDate - Graph
WXSIM - ErrDate - Graph
Last Uploaded on : 16 April 2024 14:13:14.
WXSIM - ErrDep - Graph
WXSIM - ErrDep - Graph
Last Uploaded on : 16 April 2024 14:13:14.
View - Graph - Archives  Updated at 05:25 each day.

WXSIM Forecast WRET Image

WXSIM Forecast Analysis Display (WRET Image)
WxSim Auto Generated Image above ( ./data/latest.png ) Last Uploaded on : 16 April 2024 14:13:14.

WXSIM Onsite Forecast - GFS / ECMWF Data Check ( Forecasts run 3 Hrly and GFS runs are 6 Hrly )

  Next 6hr ( 00z ) Beaumaris Onsite WxSim Forecast due on ( Tue 16 at 17:25 AEST )
  WxSim-EUROMIX ( 100 % GFS Run ( 2024-04-15-12 Z ) and 0 % ECMWF Mix Run ( 18 Z ))
 GFS Runs ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z ) 3 Hrly Check ( WXSIM-Lite Data / by Bohler )
  O  Error - Bohler WXSIM-Lite - Last was ( 2024-04-15-12 z ) and Last Should Be ( 2024-04-15-18 z )
 GFS Runs ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z ) 3 Hrly Check ( WXSIMate Data / Current Run : Bohler was Used )
  1  No Bohler GFS-Data ( 18 z ) - Available    1  No Bohler GFS-Adv ( 18 z ) - Available
Please Note : Admin is automatically emailed in the event a GFS Run is not available for injection into our onsite WxSim Forecast.