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Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station
Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ).
Below are Tables comparing our onsite ( WxSim ) Forecast to our ( Actual Observations ) by Day + 7 Days.
Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - by GFS Runs ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z )
| WxSim vs Actual ( Min and Max ) Temperature Comparison by Day Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS) All WxSim latest.csv data is injected into MySql Tables for each GFSz Run ( Minimum and Maximum Temps are Daily Min/Max from WxSim Temperature field ) ( Note : Forecast Accuracy Comparison Records for the Tables below only began 03 July 2021 ( 2021-07-03 ) ) |
Select GFS Run :
Late Morning - GFS 18z Run - ( 11:15 AEDT )
| Min Date : Sat 03 Jul 2021 Max Date : Thu 21 Nov 2024 ( on Record ) |
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| Select Dates : |
| Total Days Selected : Total Days on Record : 1238 |
( If ± 2.0° C ) or ( if ± 5.0° C ) or ( if between +/- ) |
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| Goal | Forecast Day | Day +1 | Day +2 | Day +3 | Day +4 | Day +5 | Day +6 | Day +7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ± 2.0° C | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Date | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act | WS | Dif | Act |
| 2024-11-21 | 20.8 | 11.1 | 25.1 | 12.4 | 25.7 | 13.6 | 18.7 | 16.7 | 22.7 | 15.9 | 19.5 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 12.7 | 19.3 | 11.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024-11-20 | 18.9 | -0.1 | 19.0 | 10.5 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 22.6 | 11.1 | 25.4 | 13.3 | 24.4 | 13.8 | 22.2 | 15.5 | 22.2 | 15.0 | 23.2 | 15.0 | 17.8 | 13.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024-11-19 | 19.5 | 2.4 | 17.1 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 5.4 | 19.5 | 0.5 | 19.0 | 10.5 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 22.8 | 9.4 | 26.1 | 12.8 | 25.9 | 14.1 | 21.6 | 16.5 | 19.6 | 14.3 | 17.7 | 14.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024-11-18 | 19.8 | -0.3 | 20.1 | 10.5 | 2.1 | 8.4 | 19.7 | 2.6 | 17.1 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 5.4 | 20.1 | 1.1 | 19.0 | 10.7 | 1.4 | 9.3 | 22.5 | 8.4 | 25.5 | 14.0 | 24.9 | 14.2 | 21.7 | 14.1 | 19.7 | 15.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024-11-17 | 20.9 | -0.5 | 21.4 | 13.3 | -0.3 | 13.6 | 19.6 | -0.5 | 20.1 | 10.3 | 1.9 | 8.4 | 19.5 | 2.4 | 17.1 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 18.9 | -0.1 | 19.0 | 9.8 | 0.5 | 9.3 | 19.6 | 8.6 | 24.1 | 11.7 | 27.0 | 14.2 | 18.8 | 14.4 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2024-11-16 | 19.4 | -1.7 | 21.1 | 13.2 | 1.1 | 12.1 | 20.9 | -0.5 | 21.4 | 13.9 | 0.3 | 13.6 | 19.4 | -0.7 | 20.1 | 10.6 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 18.6 | 1.5 | 17.1 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 5.4 | 19.4 | 0.4 | 19.0 | 10.1 | 0.8 | 9.3 | 22.3 | 8.2 | 24.9 | 12.6 | 25.1 | 13.6 | ||||||||||||
| 2024-11-15 | 15.6 | 0.4 | 15.2 | 10.3 | 0.6 | 9.7 | 17.6 | -3.5 | 21.1 | 13.2 | 1.1 | 12.1 | 21.8 | 0.4 | 21.4 | 12.8 | -0.8 | 13.6 | 18.5 | -1.6 | 20.1 | 10.9 | 2.5 | 8.4 | 18.5 | 1.4 | 17.1 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 19.2 | 0.2 | 19.0 | 9.4 | 0.1 | 9.3 | 19.9 | 9.5 | 22.3 | 12.6 | ||||||||
| 2024-11-14 | 17.7 | 0.0 | 17.7 | 11.7 | -0.1 | 11.8 | 14.4 | -0.8 | 15.2 | 10.3 | 0.6 | 9.7 | 17.1 | -4.0 | 21.1 | 12.2 | 0.1 | 12.1 | 21.3 | -0.1 | 21.4 | 14.3 | 0.7 | 13.6 | 18.0 | -2.1 | 20.1 | 11.3 | 2.9 | 8.4 | 20.2 | 3.1 | 17.1 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 19.3 | 0.3 | 19.0 | 10.2 | 0.9 | 9.3 | 22.9 | 10.6 | ||||
| 2024-11-13 | 25.2 | -1.8 | 27.0 | 14.0 | 0.6 | 13.4 | 15.1 | -2.6 | 17.7 | 11.3 | -0.5 | 11.8 | 14.0 | -1.2 | 15.2 | 10.2 | 0.5 | 9.7 | 16.7 | -4.4 | 21.1 | 12.1 | 0.0 | 12.1 | 22.1 | 0.7 | 21.4 | 13.8 | 0.2 | 13.6 | 20.4 | 0.3 | 20.1 | 11.7 | 3.3 | 8.4 | 19.6 | 2.5 | 17.1 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 16.9 | -2.1 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 1.7 | 9.3 |
| 2024-11-12 | 21.5 | -0.8 | 22.3 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 21.1 | -5.9 | 27.0 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 13.4 | 15.7 | -2.0 | 17.7 | 10.8 | -1.0 | 11.8 | 14.4 | -0.8 | 15.2 | 10.4 | 0.7 | 9.7 | 16.2 | -4.9 | 21.1 | 11.9 | -0.2 | 12.1 | 18.7 | -2.7 | 21.4 | 13.2 | -0.4 | 13.6 | 18.5 | -1.6 | 20.1 | 10.5 | 2.1 | 8.4 | 18.0 | 0.9 | 17.1 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| Results | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act | WS | Stats | Act |
| # Succ | 8 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| % Succ | 88.9 | 88.9 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 71.4 | 85.7 | 83.3 | 83.3 | 60.0 | 60.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 66.7 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 50.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ave Error | 0.9 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net Error | -0.3 | 0.8 | -1.3 | 0.8 | -0.6 | 0.5 | -0.9 | 1.1 | -0.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.9 | -0.6 | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Std Dev | 1.2 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Forecast - Mean Absolute Error - Check ( MAE )
| This Graph compares the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) from the forecasts generated each day since 09 Dec 2019. MAE is the mean absolute temperature error for the data analyzed, during the forecast process in ( WXSIM / Wret ) and is displayed in degree °C and °F. Also compares the Mix Percentage of WxSim-Lite ( bias corrections ) used in our final WxSim Modelling for the forecasts generated each day since 09 Dec 2019. The Current Target is set to 55% influence on temperature and dew point from WXSIM-Lite data, changed from 46% to 55% on Sunday 29th August 2021. |
| Current Records as of Thu 21 Nov 2024 | MAE : 1.31 °C | 2.36 °F | WXSIMLite MIX Percent : 50.4 % MAE is ( 0.04 °C | 0.07 °F ) Higher than Yesterday.  Min MAE WAS 0.75 °C | 1.35 °F ON Tue 21 Nov 2023 Max MAE WAS 2.43 °C | 4.37 °F ON Wed 09 Oct 2024 Max MIX Percent WAS 63.0 % ON Fri 25 Sep 2020 |
| WXSIM - Learning Routine Runs from WRET view in full screen Note: The Charts below display the Daily Difference between ( MAE - pred ), ( MAE - raw ) and ( MAE, pred, raw ). The goal is for the ( MAE ) to get smaller than the ( raw ), and hopefully almost as small as the ( pred ). |
|
MAE is the mean absolute temperature error for the data analyzed. pred is the approximate MAE the run would have had with the new bias corrections (and likely value for subsequent runs). raw is the approximate MAE the analyzed data would have had with no bias corrections (and = MAE if none were in effect). Some Stats since Records began on the 09th of Dec 2019 MAE has been equal to pred ( 158 ) Times. Select Series ( MAE (=) Pred ) below Chart to view when they occurred. ( Value set as 0.5 in order to highlight time of occurrence ) MAE has never been less than pred. |
WxSim ErrDate & ErrDep (Autolearn - Error Correction Graphs) Run at 03:15 each day.
WXSIM - ErrDate - Graph
Last Uploaded on : 21 November 2024 17:13:31. |
WXSIM - ErrDep - Graph
Last Uploaded on : 21 November 2024 17:13:31. |
WXSIM Forecast WRET Image |
WxSim Auto Generated Image above ( ./data/latest.png ) Last Uploaded on : 21 November 2024 17:13:31.
WXSIM Onsite Forecast - GFS / ECMWF Data Check ( Forecasts run 3 Hrly and GFS runs are 6 Hrly )
Next 3hr ( 00z ) Beaumaris Onsite WxSim Re-Forecast due on ( Thu 21 at 20:15 AEDT )WxSim-EUROMIX ( 100 % GFS Run ( 2024-11-21-00 Z ) and 0 % ECMWF Mix Run ( 18 Z ))
| GFS Runs ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z ) 3 Hrly Check ( WXSIM-Lite Data / by Bohler ) |
 All Good - Bohler WXSIM-Lite - Last was ( 2024-11-21-00 z ) and Last Should Be ( 2024-11-21-00 z ) |
| GFS Runs ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z ) 3 Hrly Check ( WXSIMate Data / Current Run : Bohler was Used ) |
| Bohler GFS-Data ( 00 z ) - Available Bohler GFS-Adv ( 00 z ) - Available |
