Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station


Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ). Below Tables compare our ( WxSim ) Forecast to our Actual Observations.

Early Morning - GFS 12z Run - ( 7:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 04-06-23 at 07:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
04-06-23   15   6   16   12   17   10   18   13   16   9
03-06-23 16.3 16 4.1 2   15   4   15   11   16   11   15   13
02-06-23 14.2 17 6.0 7 16.3 17 4.1 3   16   4   17   10   17   11
01-06-23 15.0 14 4.4 1 14.2 15 6.0 5 16.3 16 4.1 2   15   6   14   9
31-05-23 18.9 18 7.3 9 15.0 14 4.4 3 14.2 14 6.0 6 16.3 15 4.1 5   14   6
30-05-23 17.0 20 15.8 15 18.9 19 7.3 9 15.0 14 4.4 3 14.2 15 6.0 9 16.3 17 4.1 8
29-05-23 16.9 15 7.8 6 17.0 19 15.8 14 18.9 19 7.3 9 15.0 14 4.4 4 14.2 15 6.0 10
28-05-23 16.3 16 10.7 9 16.9 13 7.8 7 17.0 17 15.8 13 18.9 19 7.3 12 15.0 14 4.4 5
27-05-23 16.8 18 11.9 13 16.3 18 10.7 10 16.9 13 7.8 7 17.0 19 15.8 13 18.9 18 7.3 12
26-05-23 15.9 15 5.3 5 16.8 17 11.9 10 16.3 16 10.7 10 16.9 13 7.8 6 17.0 18 15.8 12
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 3 5 1
% Succ   77.8   77.8   87.5   100.0   85.7   71.4   83.3   50.0   100.0   20.0
Ave Error   1.4   1.5   1.3   1.3   0.8   1.4   1.5   2.3   0.9   3.4
Net Error   0.2   -0.7   0.1   -0.9   -0.8   -0.9   -0.6   0.6   0.1   1.9
Std Dev   0.9   0.7   1.1   0.3   0.4   0.6   0.3   0.6   0.0   0.0

Late Morning - GFS 18z Run - ( 10:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 04-06-23 at 10:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
04-06-23   15   6   15   12   16   10   18   13   16   9
03-06-23 16.3 16 4.1 3   15   4   16   11   16   11   16   12
02-06-23 14.2 16 6.0 7 16.3 17 4.1 3   16   4   16   11   16   11
01-06-23 15.0 16 4.4 3 14.2 15 6.0 6 16.3 17 4.1 3   15   5   15   10
31-05-23 18.9 20 7.3 9 15.0 14 4.4 4 14.2 15 6.0 6 16.3 16 4.1 4   15   7
30-05-23 17.0 19 15.8 14 18.9 18 7.3 8 15.0 14 4.4 3 14.2 15 6.0 8 16.3 16 4.1 9
29-05-23 16.9 18 7.8 8 17.0 19 15.8 14 18.9 19 7.3 10 15.0 14 4.4 3 14.2 15 6.0 10
28-05-23 16.3 16 10.7 10 16.9 14 7.8 6 17.0 18 15.8 14 18.9 18 7.3 11 15.0 13 4.4 3
27-05-23 16.8 18 11.9 12 16.3 16 10.7 10 16.9 13 7.8 8 17.0 18 15.8 13 18.9 18 7.3 11
26-05-23 15.9 15 5.3 4 16.8 17 11.9 9 16.3 15 10.7 9 16.9 13 7.8 7 17.0 18 15.8 12
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 5 1
% Succ   100.0   100.0   87.5   87.5   85.7   85.7   83.3   66.7   100.0   20.0
Ave Error   1.1   1.0   1.1   1.2   1.3   1.3   1.3   1.8   1.0   3.6
Net Error   0.7   -0.4   -0.2   -1.0   -0.5   -0.4   -0.7   0.1   -0.3   1.5
Std Dev   0.5   0.6   0.7   0.6   0.5   0.7   0.5   0.7   0.0   0.0

Afternoon - GFS 00z Run - ( 16:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 04-06-23 at 16:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
04-06-23   4   14   11   16   9   18   13   16   9   15
03-06-23 4.1 3 16.3 14   5   15   11   16   11   17   12   16
02-06-23 6.0 6 14.2 16 4.1 2 16.3 15   4   15   10   15   11   16
01-06-23 4.4 2 15.0 15 6.0 6 14.2 16 4.1 2 16.3 15   3   14   10   15
31-05-23 7.3 9 18.9 14 4.4 4 15.0 15 6.0 6 14.2 16 4.1 4 16.3 15   5   15
30-05-23 15.8 14 17.0 17 7.3 9 18.9 14 4.4 4 15.0 15 6.0 8 14.2 16 4.1 5 16.3 14
29-05-23 7.8 6 16.9 18 15.8 13 17.0 18 7.3 9 18.9 14 4.4 3 15.0 14 6.0 9 14.2 14
28-05-23 10.5 9 16.3 13 7.8 6 16.9 18 15.8 13 17.0 19 7.3 9 18.9 14 4.4 5 15.0 16
27-05-23 11.9 11 16.8 14 10.5 9 16.3 13 7.8 7 16.9 18 15.8 14 17.0 19 7.3 11 18.9 14
26-05-23 5.3 5 15.9 17 11.9 11 16.8 16 10.5 10 16.3 13 7.8 7 16.9 19 15.8 12 17.0 18
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 8 5 6 6 5 5 6 4 2 3
% Succ   88.9   55.6   75.0   75.0   71.4   71.4   100.0   66.7   40.0   60.0
Ave Error   1.3   1.9   1.4   1.8   1.2   2.1   1.3   2.2   2.4   1.9
Net Error   -0.9   -1.0   -1.0   -0.8   -0.7   -0.7   -0.1   -0.2   0.9   -1.1
Std Dev   0.7   1.5   0.8   1.3   0.7   1.4   0.6   0.4   0.0   0.0

Late Evening - GFS 06z Run - ( 22:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 03-06-23 at 22:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
03-06-23   3   14   5   15   11   16   9   18   13   16
02-06-23 5.9 5 14.2 16   2   15   4   15   11   17   11   18
01-06-23 4.4 1 15.0 15 5.9 5 14.2 16   2   15   3   16   10   15
31-05-23 5.9 9 18.9 14 4.4 3 15.0 15 5.9 7 14.2 16   4   15   5   15
30-05-23 15.6 15 17.0 18 5.9 8 18.9 14 4.4 3 15.0 15 5.9 7 14.2 15   4   14
29-05-23 7.8 8 16.9 19 15.6 14 17.0 17 5.9 9 18.9 15 4.4 4 15.0 15 5.9 9 14.2 15
28-05-23 7.2 9 16.3 14 7.8 5 16.9 18 15.6 14 17.0 19 5.9 9 18.9 15 4.4 4 15.0 15
27-05-23 9.4 12 16.8 15 7.2 9 16.3 13 7.8 6 16.9 18 15.6 14 17.0 19 5.9 10 18.9 14
26-05-23 5.3 3 15.9 17 9.4 12 16.8 17 7.2 11 16.3 13 7.8 7 16.9 19 15.6 13 17.0 18
25-05-23 5.4 5 18.4 14 5.3 4 15.9 17 9.4 10 16.8 18 7.2 11 16.3 16 7.8 7 16.9 19
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 2 3
% Succ   55.6   55.6   62.5   75.0   71.4   71.4   66.7   66.7   40.0   60.0
Ave Error   1.7   2.2   1.8   1.6   1.9   1.9   1.8   1.5   2.2   1.8
Net Error   0.0   -0.8   -0.2   -0.5   0.5   -0.2   0.9   0.1   0.7   -0.2
Std Dev   1.1   1.3   0.5   1.6   0.6   1.0   0.6   0.7   0.0   0.0