Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station


Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ). Below Tables compare our ( WxSim ) Forecast to our Actual Observations.

Early Morning - GFS 12z Run - ( 8:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 21-11-24 at 08:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
21-11-24   23   13   27   14   27   17   22   14   21   16
20-11-24 19.0 20 11.6 12   23   13   27   12   25   15   23   14
19-11-24 17.1 21 9.3 11 19.0 20 11.6 8   23   13   27   14   24   15
18-11-24 20.1 21 5.4 7 17.1 21 9.3 10 19.0 20 11.6 8   23   14   27   12
17-11-24 21.4 20 11.8 11 20.1 21 5.4 7 17.1 20 9.3 9 19.0 20 11.6 8   20   11
16-11-24 21.1 20 17.7 17 21.4 21 11.8 12 20.1 20 5.4 8 17.1 19 9.3 9 19.0 20 11.6 9
15-11-24 15.2 16 12.1 13 21.1 19 17.7 16 21.4 23 11.8 11 20.1 20 5.4 7 17.1 20 9.3 9
14-11-24 17.7 17 9.7 11 15.2 16 12.1 12 21.1 18 17.7 16 21.4 24 11.8 12 20.1 22 5.4 8
13-11-24 27.0 22 12.4 12 17.7 16 9.7 10 15.2 16 12.1 11 21.1 19 17.7 16 21.4 23 11.8 11
12-11-24 22.3 24 14.7 15 27.0 24 12.4 11 17.7 19 9.7 10 15.2 16 12.1 13 21.1 18 17.7 16
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 7 9 5 7 5 5 4 5 3 3
% Succ   77.8   100.0   62.5   87.5   71.4   71.4   66.7   83.3   60.0   60.0
Ave Error   1.8   0.9   1.7   1.2   1.5   1.5   1.4   1.4   2.1   1.6
Net Error   0.0   0.5   -0.1   -0.5   0.6   -0.7   0.7   -0.5   0.9   -0.6
Std Dev   1.5   0.5   1.0   1.0   0.8   1.0   0.3   1.0   0.0   0.0

Late Morning - GFS 18z Run - ( 11:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 21-11-24 at 11:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
21-11-24   21   12   26   13   27   16   20   16   24   17
20-11-24 19.0 20 11.6 11   23   13   26   13   25   15   23   15
19-11-24 17.1 20 9.3 11 19.0 20 11.6 9   23   12   27   14   27   16
18-11-24 20.1 21 5.4 7 17.1 20 9.3 10 19.0 21 11.6 8   23   14   26   14
17-11-24 21.4 21 11.8 12 20.1 21 5.4 7 17.1 20 9.3 10 19.0 19 11.6 8   20   12
16-11-24 21.1 21 17.7 18 21.4 22 11.8 13 20.1 21 5.4 7 17.1 20 9.3 10 19.0 20 11.6 8
15-11-24 15.2 17 12.1 12 21.1 19 17.7 16 21.4 23 11.8 11 20.1 20 5.4 7 17.1 19 9.3 9
14-11-24 17.7 18 9.7 10 15.2 15 12.1 12 21.1 18 17.7 15 21.4 22 11.8 12 20.1 19 5.4 8
13-11-24 27.0 22 12.4 11 17.7 16 9.7 10 15.2 15 12.1 12 21.1 18 17.7 15 21.4 23 11.8 12
12-11-24 22.3 23 14.7 14 27.0 22 12.4 11 17.7 17 9.7 10 15.2 16 12.1 11 21.1 17 17.7 15
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 7 9 5 7 5 5 4 4 4 2
% Succ   77.8   100.0   62.5   87.5   71.4   71.4   66.7   66.7   80.0   40.0
Ave Error   1.5   0.8   1.8   1.2   1.6   1.4   1.3   1.7   1.9   1.9
Net Error   0.2   0.1   -0.5   -0.3   0.5   -0.7   0.2   -0.8   -0.1   -0.8
Std Dev   1.5   0.6   0.9   0.7   0.6   0.9   0.8   0.9   0.0   0.0

Afternoon - GFS 00z Run - ( 17:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 20-11-24 at 17:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
20-11-24   11   23   13   26   13   25   16   20   17   21
19-11-24 9.3 10 17.1 20   11   23   13   26   13   25   16   21
18-11-24 5.4 7 20.1 20 9.3 11 17.1 20   9   23   13   27   14   27
17-11-24 11.8 12 21.4 21 5.4 6 20.1 20 9.3 9 17.1 20   7   21   10   25
16-11-24 17.4 17 21.1 23 11.8 13 21.4 21 5.4 7 20.1 20 9.3 9 17.1 20   8   22
15-11-24 12.1 13 15.2 19 17.4 16 21.1 23 11.8 11 21.4 19 5.4 7 20.1 19 9.3 8 17.1 20
14-11-24 9.7 10 17.7 15 12.1 12 15.2 19 17.4 16 21.1 22 11.8 12 21.4 19 5.4 9 20.1 21
13-11-24 12.4 12 27.0 16 9.7 10 17.7 16 12.1 11 15.2 18 17.4 16 21.1 22 11.8 12 21.4 22
12-11-24 14.7 14 22.3 23 12.4 11 27.0 16 9.7 10 17.7 16 12.1 12 15.2 18 17.4 15 21.1 20
11-11-24 7.8 7 25.2 24 14.7 15 22.3 23 12.4 11 27.0 16 9.7 11 17.7 16 12.1 12 15.2 18
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 9 5 8 5 7 3 6 3 3 3
% Succ   100.0   55.6   100.0   62.5   100.0   42.9   100.0   50.0   60.0   60.0
Ave Error   0.7   2.7   0.9   2.8   1.0   3.1   0.8   2.0   1.5   1.7
Net Error   0.2   -0.7   0.2   -0.5   -0.4   -1.2   0.2   0.2   0.0   1.2
Std Dev   0.4   3.1   0.5   1.4   0.4   1.4   0.4   0.5   0.0   0.0

Late Evening - GFS 06z Run - ( 23:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 20-11-24 at 23:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
20-11-24   12   23   13   26   13   26   16   20   16   21
19-11-24 9.3 9 17.1 20   11   23   13   27   14   24   16   21
18-11-24 5.4 7 20.1 20 9.3 11 17.1 20   8   23   13   27   12   27
17-11-24 10.2 13 21.4 21 5.4 7 20.1 21 9.3 9 17.1 21   7   23   12   26
16-11-24 13.9 17 21.1 20 10.2 12 21.4 21 5.4 7 20.1 20 9.3 10 17.1 20   9   21
15-11-24 12.1 14 15.2 20 13.9 16 21.1 22 10.2 12 21.4 18 5.4 7 20.1 19 9.3 8 17.1 20
14-11-24 9.7 11 17.7 16 12.1 12 15.2 19 13.9 16 21.1 22 10.2 12 21.4 20 5.4 7 20.1 20
13-11-24 12.3 12 27.0 17 9.7 11 17.7 16 12.1 12 15.2 18 13.9 15 21.1 26 10.2 13 21.4 22
12-11-24 13.9 15 22.3 23 12.3 11 27.0 16 9.7 10 17.7 16 12.1 12 15.2 18 13.9 16 21.1 22
11-11-24 7.8 7 25.2 25 13.9 15 22.3 22 12.3 10 27.0 19 9.7 10 17.7 16 12.1 13 15.2 18
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 7 6 7 5 5 3 6 3 3 3
% Succ   77.8   66.7   87.5   62.5   71.4   42.9   100.0   50.0   60.0   60.0
Ave Error   1.5   2.4   1.4   2.7   1.2   3.0   0.9   2.5   1.7   1.5
Net Error   1.2   -0.6   1.0   -0.6   0.4   -0.8   0.9   1.1   1.2   1.4
Std Dev   0.9   2.9   0.6   1.3   0.5   1.4   0.3   0.6   0.0   0.0