Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station


Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ). Below Tables compare our ( WxSim ) Forecast to our Actual Observations.

Early Morning - GFS 12z Run - ( 8:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 13-11-25 at 08:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
13-11-25   18   6   18   8   17   11   21   9   20   11
12-11-25 20.6 20 13.1 10   17   4   18   8   17   12   18   10
11-11-25 15.2 15 4.3 6 20.6 20 13.1 11   19   4   18   10   20   10
10-11-25 22.5 20 7.0 8 15.2 15 4.3 8 20.6 19 13.1 10   20   6   19   11
09-11-25 17.7 20 7.2 7 22.5 20 7.0 8 15.2 16 4.3 7 20.6 16 13.1 10   18   5
08-11-25 13.9 12 6.1 7 17.7 20 7.2 7 22.5 19 7.0 7 15.2 15 4.3 6 20.6 20 13.1 10
07-11-25 16.1 21 8.3 7 13.9 14 6.1 7 17.7 19 7.2 8 22.5 18 7.0 6 15.2 17 4.3 7
06-11-25 21.6 21 12.6 12 16.1 20 8.3 7 13.9 14 6.1 7 17.7 19 7.2 8 22.5 21 7.0 9
05-11-25 21.2 20 10.3 9 21.6 20 12.6 12 16.1 19 8.3 7 13.9 13 6.1 8 17.7 17 7.2 8
04-11-25 22.6 20 7.2 9 21.2 19 10.3 7 21.6 21 12.6 11 16.1 21 8.3 8 13.9 12 6.1 8
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 5 8 4 5 5 5 3 5 5 3
% Succ   55.6   88.9   50.0   62.5   71.4   71.4   50.0   83.3   100.0   60.0
Ave Error   1.9   1.3   1.7   1.6   1.5   1.5   2.7   1.5   1.3   2.1
Net Error   -0.3   -0.1   -0.1   -0.2   -0.1   -0.2   -0.7   0.0   -0.6   0.9
Std Dev   1.3   0.8   1.2   1.0   0.8   1.0   1.3   0.7   0.0   0.0

Late Morning - GFS 18z Run - ( 11:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 12-11-25 at 11:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
12-11-25   21   10   18   4   17   7   17   12   20   10
11-11-25 15.2 16 4.3 6   19   8   18   4   17   10   18   10
10-11-25 22.5 23 7.0 9 15.2 14 4.3 7   20   10   19   5   18   10
09-11-25 17.7 19 7.2 7 22.5 20 7.0 7 15.2 15 4.3 6   18   10   20   4
08-11-25 13.9 13 6.1 7 17.7 19 7.2 7 22.5 20 7.0 7 15.2 16 4.3 7   18   11
07-11-25 16.1 19 8.3 7 13.9 14 6.1 8 17.7 19 7.2 7 22.5 18 7.0 8 15.2 16 4.3 7
06-11-25 21.6 21 12.6 12 16.1 19 8.3 8 13.9 14 6.1 7 17.7 18 7.2 7 22.5 20 7.0 8
05-11-25 21.2 21 10.3 7 21.6 20 12.6 11 16.1 21 8.3 8 13.9 12 6.1 8 17.7 18 7.2 7
04-11-25 22.6 22 7.2 10 21.2 19 10.3 9 21.6 21 12.6 12 16.1 20 8.3 8 13.9 13 6.1 8
03-11-25 19.7 21 11.1 11 22.6 21 7.2 9 21.2 17 10.3 6 21.6 22 12.6 11 16.1 18 8.3 6
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 8 7 5 7 4 6 4 5 4 3
% Succ   88.9   77.8   62.5   87.5   57.1   85.7   66.7   83.3   80.0   60.0
Ave Error   1.0   1.4   1.7   1.2   2.0   1.1   2.0   1.3   1.3   1.6
Net Error   0.5   0.2   -0.6   0.4   -0.2   -0.4   -0.2   0.6   -0.1   0.6
Std Dev   0.7   1.0   0.8   0.9   1.0   0.6   1.1   0.6   0.0   0.0

Afternoon - GFS 00z Run - ( 17:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 12-11-25 at 17:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
12-11-25   11   18   4   18   7   17   12   21   10   19
11-11-25 4.3 6 15.2 20   10   18   4   18   9   17   10   20
10-11-25 7.0 7 22.5 14 4.3 6 15.2 19   10   19   5   18   9   17
09-11-25 7.2 8 17.7 20 7.0 7 22.5 15 4.3 7 15.2 19   9   20   4   17
08-11-25 6.1 7 13.9 20 7.2 7 17.7 20 7.0 7 22.5 16 4.3 7 15.2 16   11   19
07-11-25 8.3 6 16.1 13 6.1 7 13.9 19 7.2 8 17.7 18 7.0 9 22.5 15 4.3 7 15.2 20
06-11-25 12.6 12 21.6 18 8.3 7 16.1 13 6.1 7 13.9 19 7.2 7 17.7 20 7.0 8 22.5 16
05-11-25 10.3 7 21.2 21 12.6 12 21.6 21 8.3 8 16.1 12 6.1 8 13.9 17 7.2 7 17.7 21
04-11-25 7.2 10 22.6 19 10.3 8 21.2 21 12.6 12 21.6 20 8.3 7 16.1 13 6.1 8 13.9 18
03-11-25 11.1 11 19.7 20 7.2 10 22.6 18 10.3 8 21.2 21 12.6 12 21.6 20 8.3 8 16.1 12
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 6 2 6 2 5 3 5 2 4 0
% Succ   66.7   22.2   75.0   25.0   71.4   42.9   83.3   33.3   80.0   0.0
Ave Error   1.4   3.6   1.2   3.4   1.1   3.1   1.5   3.1   1.2   4.6
Net Error   0.0   -0.6   0.1   -0.6   0.2   -0.5   0.8   -1.0   1.0   0.3
Std Dev   1.0   2.2   0.6   1.9   0.7   1.9   0.6   2.0   0.0   0.0

Late Evening - GFS 06z Run - ( 23:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 12-11-25 at 23:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
12-11-25   11   18   4   18   8   16   11   22   9   20
11-11-25 4.3 4 15.2 20   11   17   4   18   9   16   11   19
10-11-25 4.3 8 22.5 15 4.3 7 15.2 20   11   18   5   18   10   18
09-11-25 7.2 7 17.7 20 4.3 8 22.5 15 4.3 7 15.2 19   10   20   5   19
08-11-25 6.1 6 13.9 20 7.2 7 17.7 20 4.3 8 22.5 15 4.3 6 15.2 17   10   16
07-11-25 8.3 8 16.1 13 6.1 7 13.9 19 7.2 8 17.7 18 4.3 8 22.5 15 4.3 7 15.2 20
06-11-25 9.7 13 21.6 20 8.3 7 16.1 13 6.1 7 13.9 19 7.2 7 17.7 18 4.3 8 22.5 17
05-11-25 10.3 9 21.2 21 9.7 12 21.6 21 8.3 7 16.1 14 6.1 8 13.9 19 7.2 8 17.7 22
04-11-25 7.2 10 22.6 19 10.3 9 21.2 21 9.7 13 21.6 20 8.3 9 16.1 13 6.1 9 13.9 16
03-11-25 11.1 12 19.7 20 7.2 10 22.6 19 10.3 9 21.2 21 9.7 12 21.6 17 8.3 10 16.1 12
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 6 3 4 2 4 3 4 2 2 0
% Succ   66.7   33.3   50.0   25.0   57.1   42.9   66.7   33.3   40.0   0.0
Ave Error   1.4   3.3   1.9   3.4   2.0   2.9   1.8   3.7   2.4   4.2
Net Error   0.9   -0.3   1.2   -0.4   1.3   -0.3   1.7   -1.3   2.4   0.3
Std Dev   1.3   2.1   1.0   2.0   0.9   2.2   0.8   1.7   0.0   0.0