Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station


Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ). Below Tables compare our ( WxSim ) Forecast to our Actual Observations.

Early Morning - GFS 12z Run - ( 7:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 03-02-23 at 07:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
03-02-23   21   12   19   12   24   12   25   13   23   12
02-02-23 20.9 20 7.9 10   21   13   20   10   24   11   26   14
01-02-23 27.2 24 10.4 12 20.9 20 7.9 10   20   12   20   11   24   13
31-01-23 23.8 26 11.6 13 27.2 24 10.4 12 20.9 19 7.9 10   21   10   22   10
30-01-23 21.7 22 11.6 11 23.8 26 11.6 13 27.2 24 10.4 13 20.9 20 7.9 12   21   10
29-01-23 19.5 24 11.9 15 21.7 25 11.6 13 23.8 27 11.6 13 27.2 24 10.4 12 20.9 21 7.9 11
28-01-23 31.1 29 17.3 19 19.5 27 11.9 13 21.7 26 11.6 13 23.8 27 11.6 14 27.2 26 10.4 13
27-01-23 19.7 23 17.1 16 31.1 29 17.3 20 19.5 22 11.9 14 21.7 25 11.6 14 23.8 27 11.6 13
26-01-23 23.1 23 13.9 14 19.7 24 17.1 16 31.1 29 17.3 19 19.5 23 11.9 13 21.7 24 11.6 12
25-01-23 28.7 27 15.4 13 23.1 24 13.9 14 19.7 24 17.1 15 31.1 28 17.3 15 19.5 26 11.9 16
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 4 6 2 6 1 3 1 2 2 2
% Succ   44.4   66.7   25.0   75.0   14.3   42.9   16.7   33.3   40.0   40.0
Ave Error   2.0   1.6   3.1   1.4   3.1   1.9   2.9   2.3   2.7   2.3
Net Error   0.3   0.7   1.5   1.2   1.0   1.3   0.5   1.6   2.2   2.3
Std Dev   1.4   0.8   1.8   0.5   0.6   0.4   0.8   0.8   0.0   0.0

Late Morning - GFS 18z Run - ( 10:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 03-02-23 at 10:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
03-02-23   21   11   20   11   25   12   24   13   22   13
02-02-23 20.9 19 7.9 10   21   13   20   10   25   11   25   14
01-02-23 27.2 24 10.4 12 20.9 20 7.9 10   22   12   21   11   24   13
31-01-23 23.8 26 11.6 13 27.2 24 10.4 13 20.9 19 7.9 11   21   11   19   10
30-01-23 21.7 24 11.6 11 23.8 26 11.6 12 27.2 23 10.4 13 20.9 20 7.9 10   20   11
29-01-23 19.5 23 11.9 14 21.7 24 11.6 12 23.8 27 11.6 13 27.2 24 10.4 13 20.9 20 7.9 9
28-01-23 31.1 29 17.3 18 19.5 26 11.9 13 21.7 25 11.6 11 23.8 26 11.6 13 27.2 23 10.4 13
27-01-23 19.7 22 17.1 15 31.1 28 17.3 19 19.5 23 11.9 14 21.7 24 11.6 14 23.8 26 11.6 13
26-01-23 23.1 24 13.9 14 19.7 23 17.1 15 31.1 28 17.3 17 19.5 20 11.9 15 21.7 25 11.6 13
25-01-23 28.7 26 15.4 14 23.1 24 13.9 15 19.7 23 17.1 15 31.1 29 17.3 18 19.5 24 11.9 15
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 2 6 2 5 1 3 2 2 1 3
% Succ   22.2   66.7   25.0   62.5   14.3   42.9   33.3   33.3   20.0   60.0
Ave Error   2.3   1.3   2.8   1.4   3.2   1.7   1.9   2.1   3.0   1.9
Net Error   0.1   0.4   1.0   0.9   0.6   0.9   -0.2   2.1   1.0   1.9
Std Dev   0.7   0.7   1.5   0.7   0.6   0.8   0.7   0.2   0.0   0.0

Afternoon - GFS 00z Run - ( 16:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 03-02-23 at 16:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
03-02-23   11   20   11   25   13   24   12   22   13   20
02-02-23 7.9 10 20.9 21   12   20   11   25   12   26   14   22
01-02-23 10.4 12 27.2 20 7.9 10 20.9 20   12   21   11   24   12   26
31-01-23 11.6 13 23.8 24 10.4 12 27.2 20 7.9 10 20.9 20   10   19   11   24
30-01-23 11.6 12 21.7 26 11.6 13 23.8 24 10.4 12 27.2 20 7.9 10 20.9 19   11   22
29-01-23 11.9 14 19.5 24 11.6 12 21.7 27 11.6 13 23.8 24 10.4 13 27.2 20 7.9 9 20.9 20
28-01-23 16.3 18 31.1 24 11.9 14 19.5 25 11.6 12 21.7 26 11.6 13 23.8 24 10.4 12 27.2 21
27-01-23 17.1 15 19.7 28 16.3 19 31.1 24 11.9 14 19.5 24 11.6 16 21.7 26 11.6 13 23.8 25
26-01-23 13.9 14 23.1 23 17.1 15 19.7 29 16.3 18 31.1 23 11.9 14 19.5 25 11.6 13 21.7 27
25-01-23 15.4 14 28.7 24 13.9 14 23.1 23 17.1 16 19.7 28 16.3 18 31.1 27 11.9 14 19.5 23
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 6 3 4 3 5 2 2 2 4 2
% Succ   66.7   33.3   50.0   37.5   71.4   28.6   33.3   33.3   80.0   40.0
Ave Error   1.4   4.1   1.6   4.5   1.5   4.8   2.4   3.9   1.5   3.4
Net Error   0.7   -0.2   1.0   0.6   1.2   0.2   2.4   -0.5   1.5   0.6
Std Dev   0.7   3.0   0.6   2.4   0.5   2.5   0.1   1.6   0.0   0.0

Late Evening - GFS 06z Run - ( 22:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 03-02-23 at 22:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
03-02-23   12   20   12   25   13   24   12   22   13   20
02-02-23 7.9 10 20.9 21   12   21   11   25   12   25   13   23
01-02-23 10.4 13 27.2 20 7.9 11 20.9 21   12   20   11   24   13   26
31-01-23 11.6 12 23.8 24 10.4 12 27.2 20 7.9 10 20.9 20   12   20   11   24
30-01-23 11.6 13 21.7 26 11.6 13 23.8 23 10.4 12 27.2 19 7.9 10 20.9 20   11   21
29-01-23 11.9 14 19.5 24 11.6 14 21.7 26 11.6 13 23.8 24 10.4 13 27.2 20 7.9 10 20.9 20
28-01-23 15.8 20 31.1 26 11.9 15 19.5 24 11.6 15 21.7 27 11.6 15 23.8 23 10.4 13 27.2 20
27-01-23 17.1 17 19.7 28 15.8 19 31.1 24 11.9 16 19.5 25 11.6 14 21.7 27 11.6 14 23.8 26
26-01-23 13.9 15 23.1 22 17.1 15 19.7 28 15.8 18 31.1 22 11.9 14 19.5 25 11.6 15 21.7 26
25-01-23 15.4 14 28.7 24 13.9 14 23.1 23 17.1 16 19.7 29 15.8 18 31.1 24 11.9 15 19.5 24
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 5 3 3 3 3 2 0 2 0 1
% Succ   55.6   33.3   37.5   37.5   42.9   28.6   0.0   33.3   0.0   20.0
Ave Error   1.7   3.9   2.1   4.1   2.3   5.5   2.5   4.5   2.7   3.8
Net Error   1.4   -0.1   1.6   0.3   2.0   0.3   2.5   -0.9   2.7   0.6
Std Dev   1.2   2.8   0.7   2.4   0.6   2.8   0.2   1.8   0.0   0.0