Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station


Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ). Below Tables compare our ( WxSim ) Forecast to our Actual Observations.

Early Morning - GFS 12z Run - ( 8:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 05-12-23 at 08:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
05-12-23   27   13   24   12   26   14   27   13   19   13
04-12-23 22.2 23 11.3 13   27   13   24   12   27   12   26   13
03-12-23 20.4 21 12.3 13 22.2 23 11.3 12   26   11   24   12   25   12
02-12-23 21.7 21 13.9 12 20.4 20 12.3 10 22.2 23 11.3 12   26   12   23   13
01-12-23 20.4 20 11.1 12 21.7 20 13.9 13 20.4 19 12.3 11 22.2 22 11.3 11   27   12
30-11-23 16.7 17 12.7 11 20.4 18 11.1 12 21.7 19 13.9 12 20.4 20 12.3 11 22.2 23 11.3 13
29-11-23 18.2 17 13.4 11 16.7 16 12.7 10 20.4 18 11.1 12 21.7 18 13.9 10 20.4 20 12.3 9
28-11-23 19.6 19 13.1 11 18.2 16 13.4 9 16.7 16 12.7 10 20.4 16 11.1 11 21.7 16 13.9 10
27-11-23 17.4 18 11.7 10 19.6 19 13.1 9 18.2 15 13.4 9 16.7 15 12.7 11 20.4 18 11.1 15
26-11-23 18.4 18 10.7 9 17.4 18 11.7 9 19.6 17 13.1 9 18.2 15 13.4 9 16.7 15 12.7 10
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 9 7 6 3 3 4 3 4 3 1
% Succ   100.0   77.8   75.0   37.5   42.9   57.1   50.0   66.7   60.0   20.0
Ave Error   0.6   1.6   1.2   2.3   2.0   2.3   2.3   2.0   2.2   3.1
Net Error   -0.1   -0.9   -0.8   -1.9   -1.7   -1.8   -2.3   -2.0   -1.9   -0.9
Std Dev   0.2   0.5   0.7   1.2   0.6   0.9   1.1   0.7   0.0   0.0

Late Morning - GFS 18z Run - ( 11:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 05-12-23 at 11:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
05-12-23   26   12   23   12   26   14   23   13   20   12
04-12-23 22.2 23 11.3 13   26   12   24   12   27   13   27   14
03-12-23 20.4 20 12.3 12 22.2 23 11.3 12   26   11   24   11   25   12
02-12-23 21.7 21 13.9 13 20.4 20 12.3 11 22.2 23 11.3 12   26   12   24   11
01-12-23 20.4 19 11.1 12 21.7 20 13.9 13 20.4 20 12.3 12 22.2 23 11.3 12   26   11
30-11-23 16.7 17 12.7 11 20.4 17 11.1 12 21.7 19 13.9 11 20.4 20 12.3 10 22.2 23 11.3 12
29-11-23 18.2 18 13.4 10 16.7 16 12.7 10 20.4 18 11.1 12 21.7 20 13.9 12 20.4 18 12.3 10
28-11-23 19.6 19 13.1 11 18.2 16 13.4 9 16.7 16 12.7 10 20.4 17 11.1 11 21.7 15 13.9 11
27-11-23 17.4 18 11.7 10 19.6 19 13.1 9 18.2 15 13.4 9 16.7 15 12.7 11 20.4 19 11.1 12
26-11-23 18.4 19 10.7 8 17.4 17 11.7 9 19.6 18 13.1 8 18.2 15 13.4 9 16.7 16 12.7 10
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 9 6 6 4 4 3 4 4 3 2
% Succ   100.0   66.7   75.0   50.0   57.1   42.9   66.7   66.7   60.0   40.0
Ave Error   0.6   1.7   1.3   2.2   1.7   2.4   1.9   1.9   2.4   1.9
Net Error   -0.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.8   -1.5   -2.0   -1.6   -1.6   -2.1   -1.3
Std Dev   0.3   0.8   0.9   1.2   0.8   1.2   0.7   0.5   0.0   0.0

Afternoon - GFS 00z Run - ( 17:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 05-12-23 at 17:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
05-12-23   12   23   11   26   14   25   13   22   13   17
04-12-23 11.3 22 22.2 11   26   10   24   10   26   13   27   14
03-12-23 20.4 13 12.3 23 11.3 12 22.2 26   12   24   13   25   13   27
02-12-23 13.9 13 21.7 20 20.4 12 12.3 23 11.3 11 22.2 26   11   23   10   26
01-12-23 11.1 13 20.4 20 13.9 12 21.7 20 20.4 11 12.3 22 11.3 12 22.2 28   11   23
30-11-23 12.7 11 16.7 19 11.1 12 20.4 19 13.9 11 21.7 21 20.4 11 12.3 22 11.3 11 22.2 26
29-11-23 13.4 10 18.2 17 12.7 11 16.7 18 11.1 12 20.4 18 13.9 12 21.7 20 20.4 10 12.3 22
28-11-23 13.1 11 19.6 16 13.4 9 18.2 16 12.7 10 16.7 19 11.1 11 20.4 20 13.9 10 21.7 19
27-11-23 11.7 10 17.4 19 13.1 10 19.6 16 13.4 10 18.2 16 12.7 11 16.7 17 11.1 13 20.4 16
26-11-23 10.7 8 18.4 18 11.7 9 17.4 18 13.1 9 19.6 16 13.4 10 18.2 16 12.7 10 16.7 17
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 4 5 4 4 2 1 4 3 2 1
% Succ   44.4   55.6   50.0   50.0   28.6   14.3   66.7   50.0   40.0   20.0
Ave Error   3.6   3.7   3.0   3.2   3.4   3.5   2.9   3.4   3.8   4.2
Net Error   -0.8   -0.4   -2.6   0.9   -3.1   1.0   -2.6   1.9   -3.1   1.3
Std Dev   3.1   3.8   2.3   2.9   2.7   2.6   2.8   2.8   0.0   0.0

Late Evening - GFS 06z Run - ( 23:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 04-12-23 at 23:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
04-12-23   14   26   12   24   12   25   12   28   15   19
03-12-23 12.3 14 20.4 23   13   27   13   24   13   26   13   22
02-12-23 13.9 15 21.7 21 12.3 12 20.4 23   12   26   11   23   11   25
01-12-23 11.1 12 20.4 21 13.9 12 21.7 20 12.3 10 20.4 23   12   26   11   23
30-11-23 12.7 12 16.7 20 11.1 12 20.4 20 13.9 13 21.7 19 12.3 12 20.4 22   12   26
29-11-23 13.4 12 18.2 17 12.7 11 16.7 18 11.1 12 20.4 19 13.9 11 21.7 20 12.3 11 20.4 23
28-11-23 13.1 12 19.6 17 13.4 11 18.2 17 12.7 11 16.7 18 11.1 12 20.4 19 13.9 10 21.7 20
27-11-23 11.7 11 17.4 20 13.1 11 19.6 16 13.4 10 18.2 17 12.7 11 16.7 18 11.1 11 20.4 18
26-11-23 10.7 9 18.4 18 11.7 10 17.4 19 13.1 10 19.6 16 13.4 10 18.2 16 12.7 12 16.7 18
25-11-23 13.2 14 19.7 17 10.7 10 18.4 18 11.7 10 17.4 19 13.1 9 19.6 15 13.4 9 18.2 15
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 9 4 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 2
% Succ   100.0   44.4   75.0   75.0   57.1   57.1   50.0   66.7   60.0   40.0
Ave Error   1.1   1.9   1.5   1.6   2.0   2.1   2.2   2.1   2.1   2.2
Net Error   -0.1   0.2   -1.2   -0.2   -1.7   -0.5   -1.9   -1.2   -2.1   -0.7
Std Dev   0.4   1.0   0.6   0.9   0.6   0.5   0.8   0.3   0.0   0.0