Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station


Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ). Below Tables compare our ( WxSim ) Forecast to our Actual Observations.

Early Morning - GFS 12z Run - ( 8:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 16-04-24 at 08:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
16-04-24   17   11   19   9   18   9   18   7   21   8
15-04-24 24.8 24 10.1 13   19   12   17   10   19   10   17   7
14-04-24 24.7 24 13.7 11 24.8 22 10.1 11   19   11   17   8   20   8
13-04-24 21.9 22 11.4 11 24.7 22 13.7 11 24.8 22 10.1 11   17   11   14   9
12-04-24 20.7 21 11.7 10 21.9 21 11.4 9 24.7 22 13.7 10 24.8 22 10.1 10   17   11
11-04-24 18.5 20 8.1 10 20.7 21 11.7 9 21.9 21 11.4 10 24.7 22 13.7 11 24.8 22 10.1 10
10-04-24 19.8 21 7.7 8 18.5 19 8.1 9 20.7 21 11.7 10 21.9 22 11.4 9 24.7 21 13.7 10
09-04-24 17.1 18 8.0 7 19.8 20 7.7 7 18.5 19 8.1 11 20.7 20 11.7 10 21.9 22 11.4 9
08-04-24 22.0 21 8.4 8 17.1 17 8.0 7 19.8 20 7.7 8 18.5 19 8.1 11 20.7 20 11.7 10
07-04-24 18.8 18 9.7 11 22.0 20 8.4 7 17.1 17 8.0 8 19.8 21 7.7 8 18.5 19 8.1 11
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 9 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2
% Succ   100.0   77.8   75.0   62.5   71.4   71.4   66.7   50.0   60.0   40.0
Ave Error   0.8   1.4   1.2   1.6   1.1   1.6   1.3   1.7   1.6   2.2
Net Error   0.1   0.0   -0.9   -1.1   -0.8   -0.4   -0.7   -0.6   -1.3   -1.0
Std Dev   0.4   0.9   0.9   0.8   0.9   0.9   0.8   0.8   0.0   0.0

Late Morning - GFS 18z Run - ( 11:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 16-04-24 at 11:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
16-04-24   18   11   18   9   18   9   18   7   21   8
15-04-24 24.8 24 10.1 13   18   11   17   9   17   9   17   6
14-04-24 24.7 23 13.7 9 24.8 22 10.1 10   18   11   15   9   19   8
13-04-24 21.9 21 11.4 10 24.7 22 13.7 11 24.8 22 10.1 11   18   11   14   10
12-04-24 20.7 21 11.7 11 21.9 21 11.4 9 24.7 22 13.7 11 24.8 22 10.1 11   16   8
11-04-24 18.5 20 8.1 10 20.7 21 11.7 9 21.9 21 11.4 10 24.7 22 13.7 12 24.8 22 10.1 10
10-04-24 19.8 21 7.7 8 18.5 19 8.1 10 20.7 21 11.7 10 21.9 21 11.4 9 24.7 21 13.7 11
09-04-24 17.1 18 8.0 7 19.8 20 7.7 7 18.5 19 8.1 10 20.7 20 11.7 9 21.9 20 11.4 10
08-04-24 22.0 21 8.4 8 17.1 18 8.0 7 19.8 20 7.7 8 18.5 18 8.1 12 20.7 19 11.7 9
07-04-24 18.8 19 9.7 12 22.0 21 8.4 8 17.1 18 8.0 7 19.8 20 7.7 9 18.5 19 8.1 9
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 9 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 3 3
% Succ   100.0   66.7   75.0   62.5   71.4   85.7   66.7   50.0   60.0   60.0
Ave Error   0.9   1.7   1.2   1.5   1.2   1.4   1.3   2.2   2.1   1.6
Net Error   0.0   -0.1   -0.7   -1.0   -0.6   -0.5   -1.2   -0.1   -1.9   -1.2
Std Dev   0.4   1.3   1.0   0.9   0.9   0.5   0.8   0.5   0.0   0.0

Afternoon - GFS 00z Run - ( 17:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 16-04-24 at 17:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
16-04-24   11   18   9   18   8   18   7   21   8   22
15-04-24 10.1 12 24.8 17   11   18   9   19   9   18   7   21
14-04-24 13.7 11 24.7 22 10.1 11 24.8 18   11   15   9   18   9   18
13-04-24 11.4 10 21.9 22 13.7 10 24.7 22 10.1 11 24.8 18   11   17   8   20
12-04-24 11.7 10 20.7 21 11.4 9 21.9 22 13.7 9 24.7 22 10.1 11 24.8 16   10   17
11-04-24 8.1 10 18.5 20 11.7 10 20.7 21 11.4 10 21.9 22 13.7 10 24.7 22 10.1 9 24.8 15
10-04-24 7.7 7 19.8 19 8.1 9 18.5 20 11.7 10 20.7 21 11.4 9 21.9 21 13.7 11 24.7 22
09-04-24 8.0 7 17.1 20 7.7 7 19.8 19 8.1 9 18.5 20 11.7 9 20.7 21 11.4 10 21.9 23
08-04-24 8.4 8 22.0 18 8.0 7 17.1 20 7.7 8 19.8 18 8.1 10 18.5 20 11.7 10 20.7 21
07-04-24 9.7 12 18.8 21 8.4 8 22.0 17 8.0 7 17.1 20 7.7 9 19.8 18 8.1 8 18.5 21
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 7 4 6 4 6 4 3 4 4 2
% Succ   77.8   44.4   75.0   50.0   85.7   57.1   50.0   66.7   80.0   40.0
Ave Error   1.6   2.5   1.5   2.5   1.6   2.3   2.2   2.7   1.4   3.3
Net Error   -0.2   -0.9   -1.0   -1.3   -1.0   -0.9   -0.8   -2.1   -1.4   -1.7
Std Dev   0.7   2.2   0.9   2.0   1.2   2.0   0.8   2.5   0.0   0.0

Late Evening - GFS 06z Run - ( 23:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 15-04-24 at 23:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
15-04-24   12   17   11   18   9   18   9   18   8   21
14-04-24 13.7 11 24.7 23   11   17   11   17   9   18   9   18
13-04-24 11.4 10 21.9 22 13.7 11 24.7 22   11   18   11   18   9   20
12-04-24 11.6 10 20.7 21 11.4 10 21.9 22 13.7 10 24.7 22   11   18   11   19
11-04-24 8.1 7 18.5 20 11.6 9 20.7 21 11.4 9 21.9 22 13.7 10 24.7 21   10   15
10-04-24 7.7 8 19.8 19 8.1 8 18.5 21 11.6 9 20.7 21 11.4 10 21.9 21 13.7 11 24.7 22
09-04-24 8.0 6 17.1 20 7.7 7 19.8 19 8.1 8 18.5 21 11.6 9 20.7 21 11.4 11 21.9 21
08-04-24 7.9 8 22.0 18 8.0 7 17.1 20 7.7 8 19.8 19 8.1 12 18.5 19 11.6 10 20.7 22
07-04-24 9.7 12 18.8 21 7.9 8 22.0 17 8.0 7 17.1 20 7.7 8 19.8 18 8.1 9 18.5 21
06-04-24 14.2 15 19.6 18 9.7 11 18.8 21 7.9 8 22.0 18 8.0 9 17.1 20 7.7 10 19.8 20
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 7 6 6 3 4 3 3 4 3 3
% Succ   77.8   66.7   75.0   37.5   57.1   42.9   50.0   66.7   60.0   60.0
Ave Error   1.4   1.7   1.2   2.1   1.5   1.9   2.2   1.7   1.6   1.5
Net Error   -0.6   -0.1   -0.9   -0.1   -1.3   -0.2   -0.4   -0.5   -0.3   0.1
Std Dev   0.8   1.2   0.8   1.1   1.1   1.0   0.7   0.9   0.0   0.0