Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station


Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ). Below Tables compare our ( WxSim ) Forecast to our Actual Observations.

Early Morning - GFS 12z Run - ( 8:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 27-04-25 at 08:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
27-04-25   21   12   18   10   14   6   14   7   16   6
26-04-25 21.1 22 9.2 11   21   11   18   11   15   9   15   7
25-04-25 20.3 22 15.5 15 21.1 20 9.2 10   21   11   18   12   15   9
24-04-25 21.3 19 16.2 14 20.3 22 15.5 15 21.1 18 9.2 11   20   12   16   12
23-04-25 18.8 20 12.2 11 21.3 22 16.2 15 20.3 21 15.5 15 21.1 17 9.2 11   19   7
22-04-25 19.8 19 10.0 9 18.8 19 12.2 9 21.3 20 16.2 15 20.3 21 15.5 15 21.1 19 9.2 12
21-04-25 20.7 23 13.6 14 19.8 18 10.0 12 18.8 18 12.2 10 21.3 21 16.2 14 20.3 21 15.5 13
20-04-25 20.3 23 14.4 14 20.7 22 13.6 12 19.8 19 10.0 8 18.8 21 12.2 11 21.3 20 16.2 15
19-04-25 22.7 23 13.7 15 20.3 22 14.4 14 20.7 22 13.6 13 19.8 19 10.0 11 18.8 19 12.2 13
18-04-25 22.3 23 14.3 14 22.7 22 13.7 16 20.3 22 14.4 14 20.7 23 13.6 13 19.8 19 10.0 13
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 6 8 8 6 6 6 3 5 4 2
% Succ   66.7   88.9   100.0   75.0   85.7   85.7   50.0   83.3   80.0   40.0
Ave Error   1.4   1.0   1.2   1.5   1.4   1.2   1.7   1.2   1.0   2.1
Net Error   0.7   -0.2   0.3   -0.2   -0.3   -0.7   0.0   -0.3   -0.7   0.6
Std Dev   0.8   0.6   0.5   0.8   0.7   0.5   1.1   0.4   0.0   0.0

Late Morning - GFS 18z Run - ( 11:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 27-04-25 at 11:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
27-04-25   19   11   17   10   14   7   16   6   17   5
26-04-25 21.1 22 9.2 11   20   12   17   10   14   8   14   7
25-04-25 20.3 21 15.5 14 21.1 21 9.2 10   21   11   18   13   14   9
24-04-25 21.3 21 16.2 15 20.3 22 15.5 15 21.1 18 9.2 11   20   12   16   12
23-04-25 18.8 19 12.2 12 21.3 21 16.2 14 20.3 21 15.5 15 21.1 18 9.2 11   20   11
22-04-25 19.8 19 10.0 10 18.8 20 12.2 11 21.3 21 16.2 14 20.3 20 15.5 15 21.1 19 9.2 10
21-04-25 20.7 20 13.6 12 19.8 18 10.0 11 18.8 18 12.2 9 21.3 20 16.2 14 20.3 21 15.5 12
20-04-25 20.3 22 14.4 15 20.7 22 13.6 13 19.8 19 10.0 9 18.8 20 12.2 12 21.3 22 16.2 15
19-04-25 22.7 24 13.7 15 20.3 22 14.4 14 20.7 22 13.6 12 19.8 19 10.0 11 18.8 19 12.2 12
18-04-25 22.3 22 14.3 14 22.7 23 13.7 15 20.3 21 14.4 15 20.7 22 13.6 13 19.8 19 10.0 13
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 3
% Succ   100.0   100.0   100.0   87.5   85.7   71.4   83.3   83.3   80.0   60.0
Ave Error   0.8   0.9   1.1   1.0   1.1   1.6   1.3   1.1   0.9   1.7
Net Error   0.3   -0.1   0.5   -0.2   -0.3   -0.9   -0.5   -0.1   -0.3   -0.2
Std Dev   0.4   0.6   0.6   0.5   0.8   0.8   0.8   0.4   0.0   0.0

Afternoon - GFS 00z Run - ( 17:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 26-04-25 at 17:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
26-04-25   11   20   12   17   10   15   8   16   6   16
25-04-25 15.5 14 20.3 21   10   21   11   16   12   14   8   14
24-04-25 16.2 15 21.3 23 15.5 15 20.3 18   10   20   11   16   12   16
23-04-25 12.2 12 18.8 21 16.2 15 21.3 19 15.5 15 20.3 18   11   20   10   18
22-04-25 10.0 9 19.8 19 12.2 9 18.8 21 16.2 14 21.3 20 15.5 15 20.3 19   11   17
21-04-25 13.6 12 20.7 18 10.0 8 19.8 18 12.2 11 18.8 20 16.2 14 21.3 20 15.5 14 20.3 20
20-04-25 14.4 14 20.3 21 13.6 12 20.7 19 10.0 12 19.8 19 12.2 13 18.8 19 16.2 15 21.3 19
19-04-25 13.7 15 22.7 23 14.4 13 20.3 22 13.6 12 20.7 19 10.0 10 19.8 20 12.2 13 18.8 19
18-04-25 14.3 14 22.3 23 13.7 15 22.7 20 14.4 14 20.3 22 13.6 12 20.7 19 10.0 10 19.8 20
17-04-25 13.4 14 22.8 22 14.3 14 22.3 22 13.7 15 22.7 20 14.4 15 20.3 20 13.6 12 20.7 17
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 9 7 7 4 6 5 5 6 5 3
% Succ   100.0   77.8   87.5   50.0   85.7   71.4   83.3   100.0   100.0   60.0
Ave Error   0.9   1.2   1.4   1.9   1.3   1.7   1.0   0.8   1.0   1.3
Net Error   -0.5   0.2   -1.1   -0.9   -0.4   -0.8   -0.5   -0.7   -0.7   -1.2
Std Dev   0.5   0.8   0.7   0.3   0.5   0.5   0.5   0.3   0.0   0.0

Late Evening - GFS 06z Run - ( 23:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 26-04-25 at 23:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
26-04-25   10   21   11   17   10   14   7   14   7   16
25-04-25 13.1 15 20.3 23   11   21   11   17   13   14   8   16
24-04-25 16.2 16 21.3 23 13.1 16 20.3 20   11   20   9   18   12   14
23-04-25 12.2 11 18.8 21 16.2 15 21.3 21 13.1 15 20.3 18   10   20   11   18
22-04-25 10.0 8 19.8 19 12.2 10 18.8 21 16.2 14 21.3 20 13.1 15 20.3 18   11   19
21-04-25 11.1 13 20.7 18 10.0 11 19.8 19 12.2 11 18.8 20 16.2 14 21.3 19 13.1 15 20.3 21
20-04-25 14.4 14 20.3 22 11.1 12 20.7 18 10.0 11 19.8 21 12.2 12 18.8 20 16.2 15 21.3 19
19-04-25 13.7 15 22.7 22 14.4 14 20.3 22 11.1 12 20.7 19 10.0 11 19.8 19 12.2 12 18.8 20
18-04-25 14.3 14 22.3 23 13.7 15 22.7 21 14.4 14 20.3 22 11.1 12 20.7 19 10.0 12 19.8 18
17-04-25 13.4 13 22.8 22 14.3 13 22.3 22 13.7 15 22.7 21 14.4 14 20.3 22 11.1 13 20.7 18
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 9 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 3
% Succ   100.0   66.7   75.0   75.0   85.7   85.7   83.3   66.7   100.0   60.0
Ave Error   1.1   1.6   1.4   1.3   1.3   1.6   1.1   1.7   1.4   1.7
Net Error   0.1   0.4   0.1   -0.3   0.2   -0.4   0.2   -0.7   0.9   -1.0
Std Dev   0.7   0.8   0.7   0.8   0.4   0.4   0.6   0.4   0.0   0.0