Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station


Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ). Below Tables compare our ( WxSim ) Forecast to our Actual Observations.

Early Morning - GFS 12z Run - ( 8:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 14-12-24 at 08:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
14-12-24   25   13   25   14   29   17   23   13   23   10
13-12-24 25.9 24 11.2 13   26   11   26   14   30   17   25   12
12-12-24 26.9 23 12.8 13 25.9 24 11.2 12   24   12   25   13   28   18
11-12-24 23.4 22 14.2 14 26.9 23 12.8 13 25.9 24 11.2 12   23   14   21   14
10-12-24 26.3 23 11.6 12 23.4 22 14.2 13 26.9 23 12.8 12 25.9 24 11.2 11   23   12
09-12-24 26.3 23 13.2 11 26.3 23 11.6 12 23.4 22 14.2 15 26.9 24 12.8 14 25.9 23 11.2 11
08-12-24 24.7 22 9.6 9 26.3 23 13.2 10 26.3 23 11.6 12 23.4 21 14.2 12 26.9 23 12.8 13
07-12-24 21.1 23 12.3 12 24.7 20 9.6 10 26.3 23 13.2 11 26.3 23 11.6 11 23.4 21 14.2 11
06-12-24 22.3 26 15.1 16 21.1 24 12.3 12 24.7 21 9.6 10 26.3 23 13.2 11 26.3 23 11.6 10
05-12-24 22.9 26 12.7 15 22.3 27 15.1 14 21.1 25 12.3 13 24.7 21 9.6 10 26.3 23 13.2 11
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 3 7 2 7 2 6 1 4 0 3
% Succ   33.3   77.8   25.0   87.5   28.6   85.7   16.7   66.7   0.0   60.0
Ave Error   2.8   1.0   3.3   1.0   3.1   0.9   2.9   1.1   3.2   1.5
Net Error   -0.9   0.3   -1.4   -0.5   -1.9   0.0   -2.9   -0.6   -3.2   -1.4
Std Dev   0.8   0.7   1.0   0.9   0.8   0.2   0.4   0.4   0.0   0.0

Late Morning - GFS 18z Run - ( 11:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 14-12-24 at 11:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
14-12-24   25   11   25   13   28   17   25   12   22   10
13-12-24 25.9 27 11.2 12   25   10   25   13   30   17   24   13
12-12-24 26.9 26 12.8 14 25.9 24 11.2 12   26   12   25   13   27   18
11-12-24 23.4 23 14.2 13 26.9 24 12.8 12 25.9 24 11.2 11   23   13   24   13
10-12-24 26.3 25 11.6 12 23.4 22 14.2 12 26.9 23 12.8 13 25.9 24 11.2 11   24   12
09-12-24 26.3 24 13.2 11 26.3 23 11.6 12 23.4 22 14.2 14 26.9 25 12.8 13 25.9 24 11.2 12
08-12-24 24.7 23 9.6 9 26.3 23 13.2 10 26.3 23 11.6 12 23.4 21 14.2 12 26.9 23 12.8 12
07-12-24 21.1 23 12.3 12 24.7 20 9.6 10 26.3 23 13.2 11 26.3 23 11.6 11 23.4 21 14.2 11
06-12-24 22.3 24 15.1 16 21.1 24 12.3 13 24.7 20 9.6 10 26.3 23 13.2 11 26.3 23 11.6 12
05-12-24 22.9 25 12.7 14 22.3 27 15.1 15 21.1 25 12.3 13 24.7 21 9.6 10 26.3 23 13.2 11
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 7 8 2 6 2 6 2 4 1 3
% Succ   77.8   88.9   25.0   75.0   28.6   85.7   33.3   66.7   20.0   60.0
Ave Error   1.5   1.0   3.1   1.1   3.2   0.6   2.8   1.0   3.0   1.5
Net Error   0.0   0.0   -1.2   -0.5   -2.1   -0.1   -2.8   -0.8   -3.0   -1.0
Std Dev   0.5   0.5   0.9   0.9   0.9   0.3   0.5   0.4   0.0   0.0

Afternoon - GFS 00z Run - ( 17:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 13-12-24 at 17:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
13-12-24   12   25   10   25   13   29   18   24   13   20
12-12-24 12.8 13 26.9 24   12   25   11   26   13   29   18   25
11-12-24 14.2 15 23.4 22 12.8 13 26.9 23   12   22   13   24   15   24
10-12-24 11.6 12 26.3 22 14.2 14 23.4 23 12.8 13 26.9 24   12   23   13   21
09-12-24 13.2 12 26.3 23 11.6 12 26.3 22 14.2 14 23.4 25 12.8 13 26.9 25   11   23
08-12-24 9.6 10 24.7 24 13.2 11 26.3 23 11.6 12 26.3 22 14.2 14 23.4 25 12.8 11 26.9 23
07-12-24 12.3 11 21.1 21 9.6 9 24.7 23 13.2 11 26.3 22 11.6 12 26.3 21 14.2 14 23.4 22
06-12-24 15.1 15 22.3 23 12.3 12 21.1 20 9.6 10 24.7 22 13.2 11 26.3 23 11.6 11 26.3 23
05-12-24 12.7 13 22.9 27 15.1 15 22.3 25 12.3 12 21.1 20 9.6 10 24.7 23 13.2 11 26.3 23
04-12-24 10.8 13 21.6 26 12.7 14 22.9 27 15.1 15 22.3 25 12.3 11 21.1 22 9.6 10 24.7 23
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 8 4 7 3 6 2 5 4 4 2
% Succ   88.9   44.4   87.5   37.5   85.7   28.6   83.3   66.7   80.0   40.0
Ave Error   0.8   2.4   0.7   2.7   0.5   2.8   0.8   2.5   1.0   2.7
Net Error   0.2   -0.4   -0.2   -1.0   -0.3   -1.6   -0.5   -1.6   -0.9   -2.7
Std Dev   0.4   1.5   0.6   1.3   0.7   0.9   0.3   0.4   0.0   0.0

Late Evening - GFS 06z Run - ( 23:15 AEDT )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 13-12-24 at 23:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
13-12-24   11   25   10   25   13   30   17   24   12   23
12-12-24 12.6 13 26.9 24   12   26   11   26   13   29   18   25
11-12-24 13.6 14 23.4 23 12.6 14 26.9 24   12   24   12   25   13   28
10-12-24 11.6 13 26.3 22 13.6 13 23.4 23 12.6 13 26.9 24   12   24   13   23
09-12-24 13.2 11 26.3 23 11.6 12 26.3 22 13.6 12 23.4 24 12.6 12 26.9 24   11   24
08-12-24 9.6 10 24.7 24 13.2 11 26.3 23 11.6 12 26.3 22 13.6 14 23.4 25 12.6 12 26.9 24
07-12-24 12.3 13 21.1 22 9.6 10 24.7 23 13.2 11 26.3 23 11.6 12 26.3 21 13.6 14 23.4 23
06-12-24 15.1 15 22.3 23 12.3 12 21.1 21 9.6 10 24.7 23 13.2 11 26.3 23 11.6 12 26.3 23
05-12-24 12.7 15 22.9 26 15.1 16 22.3 25 12.3 12 21.1 21 9.6 10 24.7 24 13.2 11 26.3 24
04-12-24 10.8 12 21.6 26 12.7 16 22.9 26 15.1 16 22.3 26 12.3 12 21.1 21 9.6 11 24.7 24
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 7 4 6 3 6 3 5 3 4 2
% Succ   77.8   44.4   75.0   37.5   85.7   42.9   83.3   50.0   80.0   40.0
Ave Error   1.0   2.3   1.2   2.3   0.9   2.4   0.7   2.3   1.0   1.9
Net Error   0.5   -0.3   0.4   -0.9   -0.3   -1.1   -0.3   -1.8   -0.1   -1.9
Std Dev   0.8   1.4   0.7   1.3   0.6   1.1   0.1   0.4   0.0   0.0