Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station


Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ). Below Tables compare our ( WxSim ) Forecast to our Actual Observations.

Early Morning - GFS 12z Run - ( 7:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 27-09-22 at 07:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
27-09-22   17   8   18   10   16   8   14   7   16   7
26-09-22 17.2 19 10.3 12   17   8   17   9   12   7   14   6
25-09-22 17.6 18 7.2 6 17.2 19 10.3 9   17   7   19   8   11   7
24-09-22 12.9 11 5.9 4 17.6 17 7.2 6 17.2 17 10.3 10   13   10   18   9
23-09-22 19.0 21 10.1 7 12.9 11 5.9 5 17.6 17 7.2 7 17.2 17 10.3 10   17   9
22-09-22 18.2 23 13.0 13 19.0 20 10.1 8 12.9 12 5.9 4 17.6 17 7.2 7 17.2 14 10.3 10
21-09-22 17.2 20 11.5 11 18.2 21 13.0 11 19.0 20 10.1 10 12.9 16 5.9 5 17.6 18 7.2 8
20-09-22 17.3 19 9.8 10 17.2 21 11.5 12 18.2 19 13.0 12 19.0 21 10.1 10 12.9 13 5.9 9
19-09-22 17.2 17 5.2 6 17.3 19 9.8 8 17.2 18 11.5 13 18.2 16 13.0 12 19.0 20 10.1 8
18-09-22 17.8 17 6.9 8 17.2 18 5.2 6 17.3 19 9.8 7 17.2 18 11.5 12 18.2 16 13.0 10
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 7 8 6 7 7 6 4 6 3 2
% Succ   77.8   88.9   75.0   87.5   100.0   85.7   66.7   100.0   60.0   40.0
Ave Error   1.8   1.2   1.8   1.3   0.9   1.1   1.5   0.5   1.4   1.9
Net Error   1.2   -0.3   1.2   -1.0   0.4   -0.7   0.5   -0.3   -0.8   -0.3
Std Dev   1.3   0.9   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.7   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0

Late Morning - GFS 18z Run - ( 10:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 26-09-22 at 10:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
26-09-22   18   10   16   7   17   9   12   8   15   5
25-09-22 17.6 17 7.2 5   19   9   18   7   17   9   14   8
24-09-22 12.9 12 5.9 5 17.6 17 7.2 5   17   9   16   9   17   10
23-09-22 19.0 20 10.1 7 12.9 11 5.9 5 17.6 17 7.2 7   17   10   17   9
22-09-22 18.2 20 13.0 11 19.0 19 10.1 7 12.9 12 5.9 4 17.6 17 7.2 7   16   10
21-09-22 17.2 20 11.5 10 18.2 21 13.0 12 19.0 20 10.1 9 12.9 14 5.9 7 17.6 16 7.2 9
20-09-22 17.3 19 9.8 10 17.2 21 11.5 12 18.2 19 13.0 12 19.0 21 10.1 10 12.9 13 5.9 9
19-09-22 17.2 18 5.2 6 17.3 19 9.8 9 17.2 19 11.5 12 18.2 17 13.0 12 19.0 20 10.1 6
18-09-22 17.8 18 6.9 8 17.2 17 5.2 6 17.3 19 9.8 8 17.2 17 11.5 12 18.2 16 13.0 13
17-09-22 16.7 16 5.3 8 17.8 16 6.9 5 17.2 17 5.2 5 17.3 18 9.8 8 17.2 17 11.5 12
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 8 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 4 3
% Succ   88.9   66.7   75.0   75.0   100.0   100.0   100.0   100.0   80.0   60.0
Ave Error   1.2   1.6   1.6   1.4   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.8   1.0   1.9
Net Error   0.7   -0.5   0.5   -1.1   0.5   -0.8   0.3   -0.3   -0.6   0.3
Std Dev   0.7   0.8   1.1   0.8   0.2   0.5   0.2   0.3   0.0   0.0

Afternoon - GFS 00z Run - ( 16:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 26-09-22 at 16:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
26-09-22   9   16   7   18   9   12   8   13   7   16
25-09-22 7.2 7 17.6 19   8   17   7   16   8   12   8   14
24-09-22 5.9 5 12.9 17 7.2 5 17.6 18   8   16   7   19   10   14
23-09-22 10.1 7 19.0 10 5.9 5 12.9 17 7.2 7 17.6 18   11   17   10   16
22-09-22 13.0 10 18.2 20 10.1 6 19.0 11 5.9 3 12.9 18 7.2 6 17.6 17   9   18
21-09-22 11.5 8 17.2 20 13.0 12 18.2 20 10.1 9 19.0 14 5.9 6 12.9 17 7.2 9 17.6 19
20-09-22 9.8 9 17.3 20 11.5 11 17.2 19 13.0 12 18.2 21 10.1 9 19.0 14 5.9 5 12.9 17
19-09-22 5.2 5 17.2 19 9.8 8 17.3 20 11.5 12 17.2 18 13.0 11 18.2 20 10.1 5 19.0 13
18-09-22 6.9 6 17.8 17 5.2 6 17.2 18 9.8 8 17.3 18 11.5 12 17.2 16 13.0 13 18.2 19
17-09-22 5.3 7 16.7 17 6.9 6 17.8 17 5.2 4 17.2 18 9.8 7 17.3 17 11.5 12 17.2 17
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 6 5 6 5 6 4 5 4 4 3
% Succ   66.7   55.6   75.0   62.5   85.7   57.1   83.3   66.7   80.0   60.0
Ave Error   1.6   2.7   1.5   2.6   1.2   2.2   1.3   2.2   1.7   2.5
Net Error   -1.2   0.6   -1.3   0.4   -1.1   0.8   -1.1   -0.2   -0.7   0.0
Std Dev   1.2   2.3   1.1   2.2   0.7   1.7   0.5   1.0   0.0   0.0

Late Evening - GFS 06z Run - ( 22:15 AEST )


Onsite - Actual Observed (A), Onsite - WxSim Generated - Forecast (W)
Updated: 26-09-22 at 22:00
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4
± 2.0° C Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
26-09-22   10   16   7   18   9   14   7   13   7   16
25-09-22 7.2 6 17.6 19   10   16   6   18   9   14   7   14
24-09-22 5.9 5 12.9 17 7.2 5 17.6 18   10   18   8   18   10   13
23-09-22 8.5 8 19.0 11 5.9 4 12.9 17 7.2 6 17.6 18   10   14   10   17
22-09-22 10.9 11 18.2 20 8.5 6 19.0 12 5.9 4 12.9 17 7.2 5 17.6 17   9   18
21-09-22 11.2 10 17.2 21 10.9 12 18.2 20 8.5 9 19.0 14 5.9 6 12.9 17 7.2 9 17.6 19
20-09-22 9.8 11 17.3 20 11.2 11 17.2 20 10.9 12 18.2 20 8.5 9 19.0 15 5.9 7 12.9 17
19-09-22 5.2 5 17.2 19 9.8 9 17.3 19 11.2 12 17.2 19 10.9 11 18.2 20 8.5 8 19.0 15
18-09-22 6.9 8 17.8 18 5.2 5 17.2 18 9.8 8 17.3 19 11.2 13 17.2 16 10.9 13 18.2 18
17-09-22 5.3 7 16.7 17 6.9 8 17.8 17 5.2 5 17.2 18 9.8 7 17.3 18 11.2 12 17.2 16
Results A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W A W
# Succ 9 5 6 5 7 5 4 4 4 3
% Succ   100.0   55.6   75.0   62.5   100.0   71.4   66.7   66.7   80.0   60.0
Ave Error   0.9   2.7   1.3   2.4   1.1   2.2   1.3   2.1   1.3   2.2
Net Error   0.0   0.9   -0.7   0.5   -0.4   0.8   -0.4   0.1   1.1   0.0
Std Dev   0.4   2.1   0.7   1.9   0.4   1.4   0.6   1.0   0.0   0.0