Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station

 

Beaumaris Weather ( North East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ). Below are Tables and Graphs comparing our ( WxSim ) Forecast to our Actual Observations, also includes our ( WxSim ) forecast ahead.

WXSIM Onsite Forecast - GFS Data Check ( Forecasts run 3 Hrly ( except 01:00 hrs ) and GFS runs are 6 Hrly )


 GFS Runs ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z ) 3 Hrly Check
  1  No Error !! GFSLite Run All Good the Last Good GFS was 00 and Last GFS should be 00

Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - by GFS Runs  ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z )

 
WxSim vs Actual ( Min and Max ) Temperature Comparison by Day Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
( If ± 2.0° C          ) or ( if ± 5.0° C          )

Early Morning - GFS 12z Run ( 4:15 AEST )

Goal Min Temp Compare Max Temp Compare
± 2.0° C Minimum Low Range Maximum High Range
Date Act WS Delta WS Delta Act WS Delta WS Delta
2021-04-104.98.83.98.33.420.217.1-3.117.9-2.3
2021-04-097.09.72.79.52.519.219.30.119.40.2
2021-04-0811.712.40.710.4-1.326.823.8-3.024.7-2.1
2021-04-079.610.30.710.00.422.222.50.323.10.9
2021-04-069.911.31.410.80.920.321.71.422.42.1
2021-04-059.610.40.89.80.220.620.90.321.71.1
2021-04-0411.913.51.69.8-2.124.623.0-1.623.6-1.0
2021-04-0311.312.91.611.80.530.225.2-5.025.7-4.5
2021-04-0212.614.41.812.70.121.219.9-1.320.7-0.5
2021-04-0112.914.11.213.50.630.825.9-4.926.9-3.9
2021-03-319.810.40.69.90.120.721.81.122.72.0
2021-03-308.29.00.88.60.418.821.62.822.53.7
2021-03-298.310.82.510.72.420.618.2-2.419.0-1.6
2021-03-288.39.20.98.70.420.420.70.321.81.4
2021-03-2711.512.51.012.20.720.419.2-1.219.7-0.7
2021-03-268.28.40.28.0-0.222.820.5-2.321.5-1.3
2021-03-2511.615.13.514.42.823.720.7-3.021.6-2.1
2021-03-2416.716.0-0.714.9-1.818.418.1-0.318.50.1
2021-03-2316.117.00.913.8-2.321.119.5-1.620.7-0.4
2021-03-2217.415.8-1.613.9-3.521.420.1-1.321.1-0.3
2021-03-2117.416.4-1.015.0-2.421.220.2-1.021.20.0
2021-03-2017.016.6-0.413.0-4.021.020.0-1.021.00.0
2021-03-1916.316.1-0.214.2-2.120.822.82.023.72.9
2021-03-1816.016.20.210.9-5.121.421.2-0.222.00.6
All Time GFS 12z Run ( Forecast Success ) - Records began 2021-03-18
Min Temp Success Max Temp Success
Minimum Low Range Maximum High Range
Success % Avg Error ° C Success % Avg Error ° C Success % Avg Error ° C Success % Avg Error ° C
83.31.354.21.766.71.766.71.5

Late Morning - GFS 18z Run ( 10:15 AEST )

Goal Min Temp Compare Max Temp Compare
± 2.0° C Minimum Low Range Maximum High Range
Date Act WS Delta WS Delta Act WS Delta WS Delta
2021-04-104.98.94.08.63.720.218.3-1.919.1-1.1
2021-04-097.010.33.310.03.019.218.9-0.319.30.1
2021-04-0811.713.72.011.1-0.626.826.3-0.526.1-0.7
2021-04-079.612.02.410.81.222.221.3-0.921.8-0.4
2021-04-069.911.61.711.31.420.321.20.922.11.8
2021-04-059.610.91.310.30.720.620.90.321.71.1
2021-04-0411.912.40.511.90.024.623.1-1.523.7-0.9
2021-04-0311.314.63.311.80.530.229.3-0.928.0-2.2
2021-04-0212.615.52.915.22.621.219.4-1.820.5-0.7
2021-04-0112.914.81.912.6-0.330.829.7-1.128.7-2.1
2021-03-319.813.84.011.11.320.721.81.122.61.9
2021-03-308.210.42.29.81.618.819.81.020.51.7
2021-03-298.310.32.010.11.820.619.1-1.520.0-0.6
2021-03-288.311.63.39.41.120.420.70.321.61.2
2021-03-2711.513.21.712.91.420.418.6-1.819.1-1.3
2021-03-268.212.34.111.93.722.820.2-2.621.2-1.6
2021-03-2511.615.23.614.12.523.721.0-2.722.1-1.6
2021-03-2416.716.1-0.615.2-1.518.417.2-1.218.1-0.3
2021-03-2316.116.20.113.6-2.521.119.4-1.720.4-0.7
2021-03-2217.415.7-1.714.2-3.221.420.1-1.321.2-0.2
2021-03-2117.415.1-2.311.1-6.321.220.1-1.121.20.0
2021-03-2017.015.4-1.613.5-3.521.019.7-1.320.6-0.4
2021-03-1916.315.2-1.112.0-4.320.821.70.922.61.8
2021-03-1816.015.8-0.29.5-6.521.420.6-0.821.40.0
All Time GFS 18z Run ( Forecast Success ) - Records began 2021-03-18
Min Temp Success Max Temp Success
Minimum Low Range Maximum High Range
Success % Avg Error ° C Success % Avg Error ° C Success % Avg Error ° C Success % Avg Error ° C
54.22.254.22.391.71.291.71.0

Afternoon - GFS 00z Run ( 16:15 AEST )

Goal Min Temp Compare Max Temp Compare
± 2.0° C Minimum Low Range Maximum High Range
Date Act WS Delta WS Delta Act WS Delta WS Delta
2021-04-104.97.62.77.32.420.217.3-2.918.2-2.0
2021-04-097.07.50.57.10.119.217.8-1.418.2-1.0
2021-04-0811.714.52.814.22.526.823.4-3.424.1-2.7
2021-04-079.611.01.410.71.122.222.1-0.122.70.5
2021-04-069.911.11.210.80.920.321.31.022.01.7
2021-04-059.611.72.111.31.720.620.70.121.50.9
2021-04-0411.912.50.612.10.224.622.9-1.723.5-1.1
2021-04-0311.314.73.414.43.130.229.6-0.628.2-2.0
2021-04-0212.615.83.215.52.921.220.9-0.321.80.6
2021-04-0112.914.81.914.41.530.826.8-4.026.7-4.1
2021-03-319.812.62.812.12.320.721.50.822.41.7
2021-03-308.29.91.79.31.118.821.42.622.33.5
2021-03-298.310.42.110.21.920.618.6-2.020.5-0.1
2021-03-288.311.73.411.22.920.420.3-0.121.30.9
2021-03-2711.513.01.512.61.120.419.9-0.520.70.3
2021-03-268.211.93.711.53.322.821.6-1.223.20.4
2021-03-2511.615.33.715.03.423.723.5-0.224.20.5
2021-03-2416.715.3-1.415.0-1.718.417.8-0.620.72.3
2021-03-2316.116.90.816.70.621.119.4-1.720.6-0.5
2021-03-2217.416.7-0.716.4-1.021.420.5-0.921.40.0
2021-03-2117.415.3-2.115.0-2.421.220.5-0.721.20.0
2021-03-2017.014.4-2.614.1-2.921.019.8-1.220.8-0.2
2021-03-1916.314.6-1.714.2-2.120.822.11.323.12.3
2021-03-1816.015.8-0.215.4-0.621.420.1-1.320.9-0.5
All Time GFS 00z Run ( Forecast Success ) - Records began 2021-03-18
Min Temp Success Max Temp Success
Minimum Low Range Maximum High Range
Success % Avg Error ° C Success % Avg Error ° C Success % Avg Error ° C Success % Avg Error ° C
50.02.054.21.883.31.379.21.2

Late Evening - GFS 06z Run ( 22:15 AEST )

Goal Min Temp Compare Max Temp Compare
± 2.0° C Minimum Low Range Maximum High Range
Date Act WS Delta WS Delta Act WS Delta WS Delta
2021-04-104.97.12.26.41.520.217.5-2.718.3-1.9
2021-04-097.08.71.78.21.219.216.8-2.417.4-1.8
2021-04-0811.714.12.412.50.826.823.6-3.224.4-2.4
2021-04-079.612.12.511.62.022.221.9-0.322.60.4
2021-04-069.910.91.010.60.720.321.00.721.61.3
2021-04-059.611.01.410.50.920.620.3-0.321.10.5
2021-04-0411.912.30.411.7-0.224.623.6-1.024.2-0.4
2021-04-0311.315.13.814.93.630.225.3-4.925.7-4.5
2021-04-0212.615.22.614.72.121.220.3-0.921.1-0.1
2021-04-0112.913.10.212.8-0.130.824.9-5.925.6-5.2
2021-03-319.810.10.39.7-0.120.721.50.822.41.7
2021-03-308.210.01.89.41.218.821.32.522.03.2
2021-03-298.310.92.610.62.320.618.5-2.119.3-1.3
2021-03-288.313.24.912.84.520.421.00.622.11.7
2021-03-2711.514.53.014.22.720.419.9-0.520.40.0
2021-03-268.212.34.111.83.622.820.7-2.121.8-1.0
2021-03-2511.615.74.115.33.723.720.8-2.921.7-2.0
2021-03-2416.715.8-0.915.6-1.118.418.3-0.118.60.2
2021-03-2316.116.80.716.40.321.119.2-1.920.4-0.7
2021-03-2217.417.2-0.216.8-0.621.420.4-1.021.40.0
2021-03-2117.417.50.115.5-1.921.220.8-0.421.80.6
2021-03-2017.017.10.115.9-1.121.020.4-0.621.30.3
2021-03-1916.317.00.716.50.220.822.71.923.72.9
2021-03-1816.017.91.916.10.121.418.0-3.418.2-3.2
All Time GFS 06z Run ( Forecast Success ) - Records began 2021-03-18
Min Temp Success Max Temp Success
Minimum Low Range Maximum High Range
Success % Avg Error ° C Success % Avg Error ° C Success % Avg Error ° C Success % Avg Error ° C
58.31.870.81.558.31.875.01.6

The 2 Graphs below reflect ( Min / Max Delta ) data from the above Tables

Note: Although GFS Runs are only made available every 6 Hours, we elect to (re-forecast, using WxSim) every 3 Hours in order to adjust and predict the next 3 hours based on our onsite (recent / current) conditions. The Graph below contains a greyed out seies called ( WxSim Fcst Temp ), clicking it will display the current ( 3 Hourly - re-forecast ) in order to compare against the original GFS Runs.



Forecast Temperature Comparison - ( Realtime Rolling 7 Days (+) Forecast Ahead )

 


Forecast - Mean Absolute Error - Check ( MAE )


Note : The 2 Graphs below are updated just after 05:00 hrs each day.

This Graph compares the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) from the forecasts generated each day for the past 12 Months to the MAE value for the same period from a year prior. The mean absolute error is an average of the absolute difference between the actual temperature and the forecasted temperature in our onsite ( WxSim ) forecasts, displayed in C and F.

This final Graph above compares the Mix Percentage of WxSim-Lite ( bias corrections ) used in our final WxSim Modelling for the forecasts generated each day over the past 12 Months to the WxSim-Lite Mix Percent value for the same period from a year prior. The Current Target is set to 46% influence on temperature and dew point from WXSIM-Lite data. Graph below shows the the current %.

WxSim ErrDate & ErrDep (Autolearn - Error Correction Graphs) Run at 03:15(AEST) each day.

WXSIM - ErrDate - Graph
WXSIM - ErrDate - Graph
Last Uploaded on : 11 April 2021 16:12:36.
WXSIM - ErrDep - Graph
WXSIM - ErrDep - Graph
Last Uploaded on : 11 April 2021 16:12:37.

WXSIM Forecast WRET Image

WXSIM Forecast Analysis Display (WRET Image)
WxSim Auto Generated Image above ( ./data/latest.png ) Last Uploaded on : 11 April 2021 16:12:36.