Beaumaris Weather Tasmania - WXSIM Forecast Accurancy

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17°C

Beaumaris, Tasmania
AEDT UTC

Updated: 21/11/2024 17:25

We hope you have a nice Weather Day !

Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station

Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ). Below are Tables and Graphs comparing our ( WxSim ) Forecast to our Actual Observations, also includes our ( WxSim ) forecast ahead.

Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - by GFS Runs ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z )

WxSim vs Actual ( Min and Max ) Temperature Comparison by Day Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
All WxSim latest.csv data is injected into MySql Tables for each GFSz Run
( Minimum and Maximum Temps are Daily Min/Max from WxSim Temperature field )
( High Range and Low Range Temps are Daily Min/Max from WxSim ( HiTemp and LowTemp ) fields )

Min Date : Fri 19 Mar 2021 Max Date : Wed 20 Nov 2024 ( on Record )
Select Dates :
Total Days Selected : Total Days on Record : 1343

Early Morning - GFS 12z Run - ( 5:15 AEDT )

( If ± 2.0° C ) or ( if ± 5.0° C ) or ( if between +/- )

Goal	Min Temp Compare					Max Temp Compare
± 2.0° C	Minimum			Low Range		Maximum			High Range
Date	Act	WS	Delta	WS	Delta	Act	WS	Delta	WS	Delta
2024-11-20	9.3	9.9	0.6	9.4	0.1	19.0	19.0	0.0	20.1	1.1
2024-11-19	5.4	5.7	0.3	5.2	-0.2	17.1	20.2	3.1	20.8	3.7
2024-11-18	8.4	10.9	2.5	10.9	2.5	20.1	19.7	-0.4	20.7	0.6
2024-11-17	13.6	12.8	-0.8	12.5	-1.1	21.4	19.0	-2.4	20.3	-1.1
2024-11-16	12.1	12.8	0.7	12.5	0.4	21.1	19.5	-1.6	20.4	-0.7
2024-11-15	9.7	9.8	0.1	9.5	-0.2	15.2	15.1	-0.1	16.2	1.0
2024-11-14	11.8	12.0	0.2	11.7	-0.1	17.7	16.0	-1.7	17.0	-0.7
2024-11-13	13.4	13.7	0.3	13.4	0.0	27.0	20.3	-6.7	21.5	-5.5
2024-11-12	7.8	9.0	1.2	8.4	0.6	22.3	22.7	0.4	23.8	1.5
2024-11-11	9.2	9.6	0.4	8.9	-0.3	25.2	22.8	-2.4	23.2	-2.0

( If > 80 % ) or ( if < 45 % ) or ( if between )

Min Temp Success				Max Temp Success
Minimum		Low Range		Maximum		High Range
Success %	Avg Error ° C	Success %	Avg Error ° C	Success %	Avg Error ° C	Success %	Avg Error ° C
90.0	0.7	90.0	0.6	60.0	1.9	80.0	1.8

Late Morning - GFS 18z Run - ( 11:15 AEDT )

( If ± 2.0° C ) or ( if ± 5.0° C ) or ( if between +/- )

Goal	Min Temp Compare					Max Temp Compare
± 2.0° C	Minimum			Low Range		Maximum			High Range
Date	Act	WS	Delta	WS	Delta	Act	WS	Delta	WS	Delta
2024-11-20	9.3	10.5	1.2	10.2	0.9	19.0	18.9	-0.1	20.0	1.0
2024-11-19	5.4	7.0	1.6	6.7	1.3	17.1	19.5	2.4	20.3	3.2
2024-11-18	8.4	10.5	2.1	10.4	2.0	20.1	19.8	-0.3	20.8	0.7
2024-11-17	13.6	13.3	-0.3	13.0	-0.6	21.4	20.9	-0.5	21.6	0.2
2024-11-16	12.1	13.2	1.1	12.9	0.8	21.1	19.4	-1.7	20.5	-0.6
2024-11-15	9.7	10.3	0.6	10.0	0.3	15.2	15.6	0.4	16.8	1.6
2024-11-14	11.8	11.7	-0.1	11.4	-0.4	17.7	17.7	0.0	18.7	1.0
2024-11-13	13.4	14.0	0.6	13.7	0.3	27.0	25.2	-1.8	25.9	-1.1
2024-11-12	7.8	7.8	0.0	7.2	-0.6	22.3	21.5	-0.8	22.5	0.2
2024-11-11	9.2	8.3	-0.9	8.1	-1.1	25.2	23.8	-1.4	24.2	-1.0

( If > 80 % ) or ( if < 45 % ) or ( if between )

Min Temp Success				Max Temp Success
Minimum		Low Range		Maximum		High Range
Success %	Avg Error ° C	Success %	Avg Error ° C	Success %	Avg Error ° C	Success %	Avg Error ° C
90.0	0.9	100.0	0.8	90.0	0.9	90.0	1.1

Afternoon - GFS 00z Run - ( 17:15 AEDT )

( If ± 2.0° C ) or ( if ± 5.0° C ) or ( if between +/- )

Goal	Min Temp Compare					Max Temp Compare
± 2.0° C	Minimum			Low Range		Maximum			High Range
Date	Act	WS	Delta	WS	Delta	Act	WS	Delta	WS	Delta
2024-11-20	9.3	10.8	1.5	10.5	1.2	19.0	19.4	0.4	20.5	1.5
2024-11-19	5.4	7.0	1.6	6.7	1.3	17.1	19.6	2.5	20.3	3.2
2024-11-18	8.4	10.1	1.7	10.0	1.6	20.1	19.9	-0.2	20.8	0.7
2024-11-17	13.6	12.6	-1.0	12.4	-1.2	21.4	20.0	-1.4	21.4	0.0
2024-11-16	12.1	13.1	1.0	12.9	0.8	21.1	18.9	-2.2	19.6	-1.5
2024-11-15	9.7	10.8	1.1	10.6	0.9	15.2	14.7	-0.5	15.4	0.2
2024-11-14	11.8	11.0	-0.8	10.7	-1.1	17.7	16.2	-1.5	17.0	-0.7
2024-11-13	13.4	12.5	-0.9	12.2	-1.2	27.0	22.2	-4.8	23.3	-3.7
2024-11-12	7.8	8.5	0.7	8.1	0.3	22.3	22.8	0.5	23.9	1.6
2024-11-11	9.2	8.7	-0.5	8.5	-0.7	25.2	23.8	-1.4	23.8	-1.4

( If > 80 % ) or ( if < 45 % ) or ( if between )

Min Temp Success				Max Temp Success
Minimum		Low Range		Maximum		High Range
Success %	Avg Error ° C	Success %	Avg Error ° C	Success %	Avg Error ° C	Success %	Avg Error ° C
100.0	1.1	100.0	1.0	70.0	1.5	80.0	1.5

Late Evening - GFS 06z Run - ( 23:15 AEDT )

( If ± 2.0° C ) or ( if ± 5.0° C ) or ( if between +/- )

Goal	Min Temp Compare					Max Temp Compare
± 2.0° C	Minimum			Low Range		Maximum			High Range
Date	Act	WS	Delta	WS	Delta	Act	WS	Delta	WS	Delta
2024-11-20	9.3	9.4	0.1	9.0	-0.3	19.0	18.8	-0.2	19.9	0.9
2024-11-19	5.4	6.6	1.2	6.0	0.6	17.1	19.9	2.8	20.5	3.4
2024-11-18	8.4	10.2	1.8	9.7	1.3	20.1	19.8	-0.3	20.8	0.7
2024-11-17	13.6	13.6	0.0	13.2	-0.4	21.4	18.8	-2.6	20.1	-1.3
2024-11-16	12.1	12.1	0.0	11.8	-0.3	21.1	18.3	-2.8	19.6	-1.5
2024-11-15	9.7	10.9	1.2	10.6	0.9	15.2	14.8	-0.4	15.7	0.5
2024-11-14	11.8	11.8	0.0	11.5	-0.3	17.7	16.2	-1.5	17.2	-0.5
2024-11-13	13.4	14.0	0.6	13.6	0.2	27.0	21.2	-5.8	22.3	-4.7
2024-11-12	7.8	7.3	-0.5	6.8	-1.0	22.3	23.6	1.3	24.4	2.1
2024-11-11	9.2	9.1	-0.1	8.6	-0.6	25.2	22.7	-2.5	23.1	-2.1

( If > 80 % ) or ( if < 45 % ) or ( if between )

Min Temp Success				Max Temp Success
Minimum		Low Range		Maximum		High Range
Success %	Avg Error ° C	Success %	Avg Error ° C	Success %	Avg Error ° C	Success %	Avg Error ° C
100.0	0.6	100.0	0.6	50.0	2.0	60.0	1.8

The 4 selectable Graphs below reflect ( Max / Min ) and ( High / Low Range ) Temp Delta data from the above Tables

Note: Although GFS Runs are only made available every 6 Hours, we elect to ( re-forecast, using WxSim ) every 3 Hours in order to adjust and predict the next 3 hours based on our onsite ( recent / current ) conditions. The Graph below contains a greyed out series called ( WxSim Fcst Temp ), clicking it will display the current ( 3 Hourly - re-forecast ) in order to compare against the original GFS Runs.

Forecast Temperature Comparison - ( Realtime Rolling 7 Days (+) Forecast Ahead )

Forecast - Mean Absolute Error - Check ( MAE )

This Graph compares the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) from the forecasts generated each day since 09 Dec 2019. MAE is the mean absolute temperature error for the data analyzed, during the forecast process in ( WXSIM / Wret ) and is displayed in degree °C and °F. Also compares the Mix Percentage of WxSim-Lite ( bias corrections ) used in our final WxSim Modelling for the forecasts generated each day since 09 Dec 2019. The Current Target is set to 55% influence on temperature and dew point from WXSIM-Lite data, changed from 46% to 55% on Sunday 29th August 2021.

Current Records as of Thu 21 Nov 2024 | MAE : 1.31 °C | 2.36 °F | WXSIMLite MIX Percent : 50.4 %
MAE is ( 0.04 °C | 0.07 °F ) Higher than Yesterday.

Min MAE  WAS  0.75 °C | 1.35 °F  ON  Tue 21 Nov 2023
Max MAE  WAS  2.43 °C | 4.37 °F  ON  Wed 09 Oct 2024
Max MIX Percent  WAS  63.0 %  ON  Fri 25 Sep 2020

Note : Drag Mouse over an area on charts to zoom into more detail.

WXSIM - Learning Routine Runs from WRET
Note: The Charts below display the Daily Difference between ( MAE - pred ), ( MAE - raw ) and ( MAE, pred, raw ).
The goal is for the ( MAE ) to get smaller than the ( raw ), and hopefully almost as small as the ( pred ).

  MAE is the mean absolute temperature error for the data analyzed.
  pred is the approximate MAE the run would have had with the new bias corrections (and likely value for subsequent runs).
  raw is the approximate MAE the analyzed data would have had with no bias corrections (and = MAE if none were in effect).
  Some Stats since Records began on the 09th of Dec 2019
  MAE has been equal to pred ( 158 ) Times.
  Select Series ( MAE (=) Pred ) below Chart to view when they occurred. ( Value set as 0.5 in order to highlight time of occurrence )
  MAE has never been less than pred.

WxSim ErrDate & ErrDep (Autolearn - Error Correction Graphs) Run at 01:15(AEST) each day.

WXSIM - ErrDate - Graph

Last Uploaded on : 21 November 2024 17:13:31.

WXSIM - ErrDep - Graph

Last Uploaded on : 21 November 2024 17:13:31.

WXSIM Forecast WRET Image

WXSIM Forecast Analysis Display (WRET Image)
WxSim Auto Generated Image above ( ./data/latest.png ) Last Uploaded on : 21 November 2024 17:13:31.

WXSIM Onsite Forecast - GFS Data Check ( Forecasts run 3 Hrly and GFS runs are 6 Hrly )

Next 3hr ( 00z ) Beaumaris Onsite WxSim Re-Forecast due on ( Thu 21 at 20:15 AEDT )

GFS Runs ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z ) 3 Hrly Check ( WxSim Data )

All Good - Bohler WXSIM-Lite - Last was ( 2024-11-21-00 z ) and Last Should Be ( 2024-11-21-00 z )

GFS Runs ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z ) 6 Hrly Check ( Bohler Data )

Bohler GFS-Data ( 00 z ) - Available

Bohler GFS-Adv ( 00 z ) - Available

Please Note : Admin is automatically emailed in the event a GFS Run is not available for injection into our onsite WxSim Forecast.

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