Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast (Includes Aurora Alerts)
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2021 Apr 11 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 11-Apr 13 2021 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
| Apr 11 | Apr 12 | Apr 13 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03UT | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 03-06UT | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 06-09UT | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 09-12UT | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 12-15UT | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 15-18UT | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 18-21UT | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 21-00UT | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
| Apr 11 | Apr 12 | Apr 13 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 or greater | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
| Apr 11 | Apr 12 | Apr 13 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1-R2 | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| R3 or greater | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 304
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SOHO EIT 284
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Mauna Loa Solar Image
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The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Sunspots - latest image
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Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). |
Current Solar Wind Speed
Data supplied by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. |
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Solar X-ray Flux This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. |
Satellite Environment Plot The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. |
Aurora Forecast
Geophysical Conditions
Warning |
Alert |
Alert |
You can view a (7MB) animation on the effects of space weather on the geomagnetic field.
Hobart - Estimated K-Index Plot
You can also view the Hobart K-Index Plot at IPS (Ionospheric Prediction Service).
These plots show real time Aurora Forecasts.
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Map courtesy of NOAA - OVATION Aurora - Prime Model
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles.
The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
D REGION ABSORPTION PREDICTION.
You can also view the TIMELAPSE of D REGION ABSORPTION PREDICTION at SWPC NOAA (SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER) for Space Weather Enthusiasts.
Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
SWS (Space Weather Services) Australian Bureau of Meteorology
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA)
Space Weather links:
SpaceWeather.com
Space Weather Services (Ionospheric Prediction Service) Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Space Weather Services (Auroral Oval Prediction Tool) Australian Bureau of Meteorology
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images