Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast (Includes Aurora Alerts)


3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2020 Oct 29 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 29-Oct 31 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 29-Oct 31 2020
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
00-03UT222
03-06UT311
06-09UT311
09-12UT311
12-15UT211
15-18UT211
18-21UT222
21-00UT222

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 29-Oct 31 2020
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
S1 or greater1%1%1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 29-Oct 31 2020
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
R1-R210%10%10%
R3 or greater1%1%1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



Real Time Images of the Sun


SOHO EIT 304
Click for time-lapse image of the sun
SOHO EIT 284
SOHO EIT 284 image of the sun
Mauna Loa Solar Image
Latest Mauna Loa image of the Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Sunspots - latest image

Yesterday Sunspots

Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Images of the solar corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).
Current Solar Wind Speed
Current Solar Wind Speed
Data supplied by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

Solar X-ray Flux

This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.
Satellite Environment Plot

The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.


Aurora Forecast


Aurora Alert

Geophysical Conditions

K-Index

Geomagnetic
Warning

pc3-Index

GEOSTAT
Alert

AusDst-Index

Geomagnetic
Alert

Alerts courtesy of IPS (Ionospheric Prediction Service) Australian Bureau of Meteorology

You can view a (7MB) animation on the effects of space weather on the geomagnetic field.

Hobart - Estimated K-Index Plot

Hobart K-Index Plot

You can also view the Hobart K-Index Plot at IPS (Ionospheric Prediction Service).



These plots show real time Aurora Forecasts.

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Map courtesy of NOAA - OVATION Aurora - Prime Model
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

D REGION ABSORPTION PREDICTION.

D REGION ABSORPTION PREDICTION

You can also view the TIMELAPSE of D REGION ABSORPTION PREDICTION at SWPC NOAA (SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER) for Space Weather Enthusiasts.