Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast ( Includes Aurora Alerts )


Australian - Daily Report ( can be viewed here ) : SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2021 Oct 17 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 17-Oct 19 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 17-Oct 19 2021
Oct 17Oct 18Oct 19
00-03UT024
03-06UT123
06-09UT122
09-12UT332
12-15UT133
15-18UT133
18-21UT132
21-00UT243

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 17-Oct 19 2021
Oct 17Oct 18Oct 19
S1 or greater1%1%1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 17-Oct 19 2021
Oct 17Oct 18Oct 19
R1-R21%1%1%
R3 or greater1%1%1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Current Space Weather Overview

Space Weather Overview
Graphs Showing Solar X-Ray & Solar Proton Flux

Real Time Images of the Sun


GOES-17 SUVI Primary 304
GOES-17 SUVI Primary 304 image of the sun
GOES-16 SUVI Primary 284
GOES-16 SUVI Primary 284 image of the sun
GOES-16 SUVI Primary 195
GOES-16 SUVI Primary 195 image of the sun
GOES-16 SUVI Primary 171
GOES-16 SUVI Primary 171 image of the Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Images of the solar corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).
Current Solar Wind Speed
Current Solar Wind Speed
Data supplied by SWS Space Weather Services (BoM).

Solar X-ray Flux

This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.
Satellite Environment Plot

The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction
Move your cursor over the timeline to 'scrub' through the forecast.

WSA-Enlil is a large-scale, physics-based prediction model of the heliosphere, used by the Space Weather Forecast Office to provide 1-4 day advance warning of solar wind structures and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that cause geomagnetic storms. Solar disturbances have long been known to disrupt communications, wreak havoc with geomagnetic systems, and to pose dangers for satellite operations.

Australian Aurora Alert - Detail - Aurora Alert


Aurora Alerts are issued whenever the Australian region estimated K-index reaches 6 or greater. When an alert is current the alert information indicates the latitudinal range in terms of high, middle, low and equatorial regions where aurora may be visible under good observing conditions.

Aurora Alert:
status:


Period:
  ( your Time ) to   ( your Time )


Description:
No description available

Span:
Unknown


K Index Value:
Not Given



Australian Aurora Watch - Detail - Aurora Watch


Aurora Watches are warnings with lead times of up to 48 hours. They will only be issued in response to a significant solar Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) or coronal hole likely to be geo-effective. Aurora alerts will follow if favourable space weather activity acutally occurs.

Aurora Watch:
status:


Period:
  ( your Time ) to   ( your Time )


Description:
No description available

Cause:
Unknown


Span:
Unknown


K Index Value:
Not Given



Australian Aurora Outlook - Detail - Aurora Outlook


Aurora Outlooks are warnings with lead times of 3-7 days. They will be issued in response to the presence of a large active solar region expected to rotate into a position that is favourable for CMEs, and similarly for significant coronal holes. Solar regions that maintain high levels of solar flare activity for sustained periods are rare. Consequently, these notices are likely to be infrequent. Aurora watches and/or alerts will follow if a geoeffective CME is observed and/or significant geomagnetic activity actually occurs.

Aurora Outlook:
status:


Period:
  ( your Time ) to   ( your Time )


Description:
No description available

Cause:
Unknown


Span:
Unknown


K Index Value:
Not Given



Australian Geomagnetic Warning - Detail - Geomagnetic Warning


Geomagnetic Warnings are issued whenever expected increased levels of geomagnetic activity are current.

Mag Warning:
status:


Period:
  ( your Time ) to   ( your Time )


Description:
No description available

Cause:
Unknown


Australian Geomagnetic Alert - Detail - Geomagnetic Alert


Geomagnetic Alerts are issued whenever the Australian region estimated K-index reaches 5 or greater.

Mag Alert:
status:


Period:
  ( your Time ) to   ( your Time )


Description:
No description available

Australian Region K-index - Detail - Current Estimated Aus K-index


K index is a measure of geomagnetic activity for a 3-hour period. The larger the K index, the greater the chance of seeing an aurora at lower latitudes. To check if an aurora could be visible at your latitude for a given K-index value, look at the table of visibility range estimates or try out the Auroral Oval Prediction Tool. The Kaus index is the Estimated Australian Region K index sourced from SWS. Kaus is a near real-time estimate of the K index for the Australian region, which is recalculated approximately every 5 minutes. The Kp index is the Estimated Planetary K index sourced from NOAA/SWPC. The Kp index is updated every 3-hours and its timestamp will be behind that of the Kaus index. Estimated K-indices generated for the Australian region are the average of the estimated K-indices from the individual stations and have a range of values from 0 (very quiet) up to 9 (extremely disturbed).

K Index Value:
?
  Valid Time:   ( your Time )    Analysis time:   ( your Time )




Australian Region - Estimated K-Index Plot ( Updates Daily )

Australian Region - Estimated K-Index Plot

Hobart - Estimated K-Index Plot

Hobart K-Index Plot

Additional - Australian Geophysical Conditions - Links

pc3-Index

GEOSTAT
Alert

AusDst-Index

Alerts Warnings courtesy of SWS (Space Weather Service) Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Auroral Oval - 30 Minute Forecast


NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
unavailable
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
unavailable

Map courtesy of NOAA - OVATION Aurora - Prime Model
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
You may also like to view the : Auroral Oval Prediction Tool by the : SWS (Space Weather Services) Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Solar Cycle - SunSpots


Solar Cycle - SunSpots

Current solar cycle: observed monthly sunspot number (thin yellow), observed smoothed monthly sunspot number (thick turquoise) and predicted smoothed monthly sunspot number (magenta crosses).

ISS - Space Station - Tracker


This tracker shows where the Space Station is right now. The shaddow overlay indicates where it is nighttime in the world.