Space weather

Solar wind speed Solar wind magnetic fields Noon 10.7cm radio flux
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Update

Update
WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 16, 2024 17.29 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 16 1728 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 16 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 16, 2024 08.57 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4728
Valid From: 2024 Oct 15 0800 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 16 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 15, 2024 23.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4727
Valid From: 2024 Oct 15 0800 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 16 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 15, 2024 19.41 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 15 1817 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 15, 2024 19.40 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 15 1832 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 883 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 15, 2024 19.39 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 15 1808 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 270 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 15, 2024 14.19 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4726
Valid From: 2024 Oct 15 0800 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 15 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Oct 15, 2024 08.38 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 15 0820 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 15, 2024 07.59 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 15 0800 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 15 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Oct 14, 2024 22.46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 14 2246 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 14, 2024 22.37 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 14 2237 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 15 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 14, 2024 00.32 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 14 0014 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 545 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: Oct 13, 2024 20.42 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 14: None (Below G1) Oct 15: None (Below G1) Oct 16: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 12, 2024 20.45 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4723
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1350 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 13 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 12, 2024 10.51 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 12 1051 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Oct 12, 2024 10.36 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1946
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1506 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 12 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 12, 2024 10.34 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4722
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1350 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 12 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 17.14 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 11: G3 (Strong) Oct 12: G1 (Minor) Oct 13: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: This supersedes the previous G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm watch for 11 Oct as potential has diminished. A G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm watch remains in place for 11 Oct, along with a G1 (Minor) watch for 12 Oct, as CME effects continue to wane.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 16.50 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 551
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1506 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 11 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 16.49 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1945
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1506 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 12 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 16.45 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4721
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1350 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 12 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 15.00 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 1459 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 13.28 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 1322 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 12.40 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 1234 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 11.44 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4720
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1350 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 11 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 11.44 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 550
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1506 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 11 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 11.44 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1944
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1506 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 11 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 11.44 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Extension to Serial Number: 119
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1541 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 11 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 11.20 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 0505 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 10 1515 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 11 0320 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 1810 pfu
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

CANCEL WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 11.20 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 579
Original Issue Time: 2024 Oct 09 0438 UTC

Comment: Conditions have subsided.

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 10.12 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 1012 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 09.39 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 0939 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 09.26 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 0925 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 08.48 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 0848 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 07.42 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 0742 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 06.27 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 0619 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 06.16 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 0611 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 05.50 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 11 0533 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 11 0533 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 11 0533 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 340 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 216 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 05.16 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Extension to Serial Number: 118
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1541 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 11 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 05.15 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 0510 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 04.39 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 0432 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 04.20 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 0413 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 03.33 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 0325 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 02.11 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 0207 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 01.08 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 0740 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 10 1515 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 10 2110 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 1811 pfu
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 00.47 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 0042 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 00.25 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 0019 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 11, 2024 00.19 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 11 0014 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 22.58 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 10 2252 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 21.52 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 10 2146 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 21.29 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 10 2126 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 21.25 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 578
Valid From: 2024 Oct 09 0440 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 11 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Comment: S1-S2 levels are expected

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 21.13 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 10 2107 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 20.37 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 10 2032 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 19.57 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 1240 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 10 1515 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 10 1545 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 1810 pfu
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 18.58 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 10 1853 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 18.31 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 10 1826 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 18.23 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 10 1819 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 17.05 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 10 1657 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 15.52 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 10 1549 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 15.42 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1541 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 11 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 15.37 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 10 1537 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 15.25 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 10 1521 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 15.25 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2024 Oct 10 1515 UTC
Deviation: 36 nT
Station: Boulder

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 15.24 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 10 1520 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 15.07 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1506 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 11 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 15.06 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1506 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 11 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 15.01 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1501 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 10 1530 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2024 Oct 10 1449 UTC

Comment: Average wind speed is around 700 km/s, so expected arrival is somewhere between 15:15 and 15:45 UTC.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 13.51 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 10 1350 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 11 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Issued: Oct 10, 2024 07.59 UTC
Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 0350 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 09 0805 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 10 0440 UTC
Maximum 100MeV Flux: 4 pfu

Comment: This Summary marks the end of the 100 MeV proton event.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 23.56 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 110
Valid From: 2024 Oct 09 0333 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 10 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 23.55 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 577
Valid From: 2024 Oct 09 0440 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 10 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

Comment: S2-S3 levels are expected

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 23.37 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 2259 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 09 2312 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 09 2321 UTC
X-ray Class: M7.7
Optical Class: na
Location: S13W90
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 23.13 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 09 2309 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 17.24 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 1705 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.
Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.
Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 16.18 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 1546 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 16.06 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 1544 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 09 1547 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 09 1553 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.4
Location: S10W90
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 16.03 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 1544 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 09 1545 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 09 1547 UTC
Duration: 3 minutes
Peak Flux: 2300 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 225 sfu

Comment: Castelli U Burst
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 15.48 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 09 1545 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 13.49 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4718
Valid From: 2024 Oct 06 1506 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 09 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 13.47 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 09 1340 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 12.55 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 1240 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.
Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.
Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G4 or Greater Predicted
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 12.33 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G4 or Greater Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 10: G4 (Severe) Oct 11: G4 (Severe) Oct 12: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 08.01 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 0740 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 05.58 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 09 0554 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 05.22 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 0505 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 04.38 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 09 0440 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 09 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 04.31 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 0136 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 09 0203 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 09 0400 UTC
Duration: 174 minutes
Peak Flux: 2700 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 225 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 04.08 UTC
Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 0350 UTC

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 03.33 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 09 0333 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 09 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 02.50 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 0125 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 09 0156 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 09 0243 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.8
Optical Class: na
Location: N12W11
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 02.37 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1942
Valid From: 2024 Oct 08 2317 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 09 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 02.36 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4717
Valid From: 2024 Oct 06 1506 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 09 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 02.00 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 0143 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 02.00 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 09 0144 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 5176 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: Oct 9, 2024 01.46 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 09 0143 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 23.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4716
Valid From: 2024 Oct 06 1506 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 09 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 23.17 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 08 2317 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 09 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 20.23 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 09: None (Below G1) Oct 10: None (Below G1) Oct 11: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 20.05 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 08 1936 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 17.32 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 08 1711 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 13.03 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 08 1259 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 08.45 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 08 0836 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 08.34 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 08 0823 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 05.17 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 08 0512 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 05.06 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 08 0458 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 04.19 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 08 0409 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 02.47 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4715
Valid From: 2024 Oct 06 1506 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 08 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 02.47 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 548
Valid From: 2024 Oct 07 1800 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 08 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 02.47 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1940
Valid From: 2024 Oct 06 2220 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 08 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 02.42 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 08 0235 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 02.33 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 08 0232 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 08 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 8, 2024 00.51 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 08 0046 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 22.09 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 07 2202 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 21.24 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 07 2117 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 21.12 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 07 2007 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 20.26 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 07 2003 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 941 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 19.38 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 07 1902 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 07 1913 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 07 1931 UTC
X-ray Class: X2.1
Optical Class: 2b
Location: S17W59
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 19.20 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 07 1906 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 07 1907 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 07 1910 UTC
Duration: 4 minutes
Peak Flux: 640 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 265 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 19.09 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 07 1907 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 18.49 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 07 1845 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 18.49 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4714
Valid From: 2024 Oct 06 1506 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 08 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 18.48 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1939
Valid From: 2024 Oct 06 2220 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 08 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 18.47 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 07 1800 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 08 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 18.38 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 07 1833 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 18.32 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 07 1828 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 17.38 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 07 1731 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 13.38 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1938
Valid From: 2024 Oct 06 2220 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 07 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 13.38 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4713
Valid From: 2024 Oct 06 1506 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 08 0000 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 13.34 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 07 1328 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 13.33 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 07 1332 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 07 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 13.01 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 07 1256 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 12.52 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 07 1225 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 11.42 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 07 1141 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 11.09 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1937
Valid From: 2024 Oct 06 2220 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 07 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 06.04 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 07 0559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 01.02 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 07 0100 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 07 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 01.02 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1936
Valid From: 2024 Oct 06 2220 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 07 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 01.02 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4712
Valid From: 2024 Oct 06 1506 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 07 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 7, 2024 00.52 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 07 0041 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 6, 2024 22.45 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 06 2240 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Comment: RE-issued with correct Threshold Reached time of 06/2240 UTC.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

CANCEL ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 6, 2024 22.44 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Cancel Serial Number: 1652
Original Issue Time: 2024 Oct 06 2241 UTC

Comment: Issued with incorrect "Threshold Reached" time. Will re-issue with correct time.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Oct 6, 2024 22.41 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 06 2220 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Oct 6, 2024 22.18 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 06 2220 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 07 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Oct 6, 2024 21.04 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 06 2059 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 6, 2024 15.07 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 06 1506 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 07 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Oct 4, 2024 22.59 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 04 2300 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 05 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Issued: Oct 4, 2024 18.57 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 05: G3 (Strong) Oct 06: G3 (Strong) Oct 07: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm watch added to new day three (07 Oct).

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: Oct 3, 2024 20.43 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 03 2009 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 03 2028 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 03 2040 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.7
Location: S09W49
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 3, 2024 20.36 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 03 2012 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1241 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: Oct 3, 2024 20.24 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 03 2022 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Issued: Oct 3, 2024 20.13 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 04: G3 (Strong) Oct 05: G3 (Strong) Oct 06: G3 (Strong)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: Oct 3, 2024 13.43 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 03 1214 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 03 1215 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 03 1224 UTC
Duration: 10 minutes
Peak Flux: 3500 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 275 sfu

Comment: Castelli-U Burst
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Issued: Oct 3, 2024 12.36 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 03 1208 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 03 1218 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 03 1227 UTC
X-ray Class: X9.0
Location: S14W03
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 3, 2024 12.33 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 03 1217 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 3, 2024 12.32 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 03 1218 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 573 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

CANCEL ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 3, 2024 12.32 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Cancel Serial Number: 1359
Original Issue Time: 2024 Oct 03 1229 UTC

Comment: Wrong sstart time entered
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 3, 2024 12.30 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 03 1218 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 573 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 3, 2024 12.29 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 03 1018 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 573 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: Oct 3, 2024 12.18 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 03 1215 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Issued: Oct 2, 2024 17.01 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 03: G1 (Minor) Oct 04: G3 (Strong) Oct 05: G2 (Moderate)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 2, 2024 09.05 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 02 0544 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1144 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Issued: Oct 1, 2024 22.38 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 01 2158 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 01 2220 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 01 2229 UTC
X-ray Class: X7.1
Optical Class: 2b
Location: S15E19
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: Oct 1, 2024 22.33 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 01 2209 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 01 2214 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 01 2218 UTC
Duration: 9 minutes
Peak Flux: 810 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 245 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Oct 1, 2024 22.26 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 01 2217 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1246 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: Oct 1, 2024 22.14 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 01 2211 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: Oct 1, 2024 00.26 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 30 2337 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Sep 30 2359 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 01 0023 UTC
X-ray Class: M7.6
Optical Class: 2n
Location: S15E31
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: Sep 30, 2024 23.55 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 30 2353 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Sep 30, 2024 01.17 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 30 0115 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 29, 2024 23.49 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4709
Valid From: 2024 Sep 29 0424 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 30 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 29, 2024 04.25 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 29 0424 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 29 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 26, 2024 05.32 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4707
Valid From: 2024 Sep 24 2245 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 26 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: Sep 25, 2024 20.52 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 26: G1 (Minor) Sep 27: None (Below G1) Sep 28: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 25, 2024 16.19 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 25 1619 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 25, 2024 14.57 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1934
Valid From: 2024 Sep 24 2345 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 25 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 25, 2024 14.57 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4706
Valid From: 2024 Sep 24 2245 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 26 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 25, 2024 08.38 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1933
Valid From: 2024 Sep 24 2345 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 25 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 25, 2024 05.49 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 25 0545 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 25, 2024 00.00 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 24 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 24, 2024 23.46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 24 2345 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 25 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Sep 24, 2024 23.42 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 24 2333 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 24, 2024 22.44 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 24 2245 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 25 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 23, 2024 20.53 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4704
Valid From: 2024 Sep 23 1400 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 24 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: Sep 23, 2024 20.51 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 24: None (Below G1) Sep 25: G1 (Minor) Sep 26: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Sep 23, 2024 14.34 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 23 1434 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Sep 23, 2024 14.13 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3405
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 19 1740 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2345 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 23, 2024 14.00 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 23 1400 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 23 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: Sep 22, 2024 21.53 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 22 2123 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Sep 22 2127 UTC
End Time: 2024 Sep 22 2132 UTC
Duration: 9 minutes
Peak Flux: 540 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 163 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Sep 22, 2024 10.02 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3404
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 19 1740 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1718 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Sep 21, 2024 14.46 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3403
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 19 1740 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1241 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Sep 20, 2024 14.28 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3402
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 19 1740 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1228 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Sep 19, 2024 18.12 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 19 1740 UTC
Station: GOES-16

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 19, 2024 13.32 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4702
Valid From: 2024 Sep 19 1026 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 19 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Sep 19, 2024 13.28 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 19 1320 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 19, 2024 10.26 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 19 1026 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 19 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 19, 2024 02.46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 19 0246 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 19, 2024 01.46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 19 0150 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 19 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Sep 19, 2024 00.01 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 18 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 18, 2024 23.11 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 18 2315 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 19 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Table

Date Radio flux 10.7 cm SESC Sunspot number Sunspot area 10E-6 New regions GOES15 X-ray Bkgd flux Flares
X-ray Optical
C M X S 1 2 3
2024-09-18 163 93 520 1 * 4 0 0 4 0 0 0
2024-09-19 161 109 580 1 * 4 0 0 3 0 0 0
2024-09-20 154 113 600 3 * 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
2024-09-21 158 117 640 0 * 3 0 0 2 0 0 0
2024-09-22 163 114 650 1 * 1 1 0 5 0 1 0
2024-09-23 167 224 690 1 * 2 1 0 2 0 0 0
2024-09-24 172 123 730 0 * 7 0 0 5 0 0 0
2024-09-25 174 160 720 1 * 2 1 0 2 1 0 0
2024-09-26 181 189 740 2 * 4 1 0 4 1 0 0
2024-09-27 186 122 530 1 * 6 0 0 13 0 0 0
2024-09-28 195 148 630 2 * 5 0 0 10 0 0 0
2024-09-29 197 154 660 1 * 3 3 0 7 1 0 0
2024-09-30 214 150 580 1 * 8 1 0 21 0 1 0
2024-10-01 245 196 840 3 * 8 2 1 22 1 1 0
2024-10-02 275 194 1360 1 * 10 6 0 31 2 1 0
2024-10-03 312 229 1780 0 * 2 8 1 29 0 1 0
2024-10-04 291 180 3520 1 * 1 5 0 16 3 0 0
2024-10-05 277 173 3420 0 * 9 5 0 14 1 0 0
2024-10-06 265 167 2640 1 * 3 5 0 6 0 0 0
2024-10-07 277 164 2470 2 * 2 1 2 11 1 1 0
2024-10-08 225 165 2380 0 * 4 1 0 8 1 0 0
2024-10-09 220 107 1920 0 * 3 2 2 4 2 0 0
2024-10-10 216 150 1460 2 * 4 4 0 4 0 0 0
2024-10-11 214 130 1445 0 * 6 2 0 4 0 0 0
2024-10-12 214 95 1080 0 * 5 0 0 7 0 0 0
2024-10-13 195 108 1270 2 * 3 0 0 6 0 0 0
2024-10-14 182 146 1380 2 * 9 2 0 8 0 0 0
2024-10-15 172 141 1290 1 * 17 5 0 14 4 1 0
2024-10-16 168 135 900 0 * 13 6 0 16 3 0 0
2024-10-17 174 146 1020 1 * 8 2 0 1 0 0 0
Average/Total 207 148 1282 31 157 64 6 280 21 7 0

Summary graph

Flares

Solar wind

Solar Wind

The solar wind is a stream of plasma released from the upper atmosphere of the Sun. It consists of mostly electrons, protons and alpha particles with energies usually between 1.5 and 10 keV. The stream of particles varies in density, temperature, and speed over time and over solar longitude. These particles can escape the Sun's gravity because of their high energy, from the high temperature of the corona and magnetic, electrical and electromagnetic phenomena in it.

The solar wind is divided into two components, respectively termed the slow solar wind and the fast solar wind. The slow solar wind has a velocity of about 400 km/s, a temperature of 1.4–1.6×10e6 K and a composition that is a close match to the corona. By contrast, the fast solar wind has a typical velocity of 750 km/s, a temperature of 8×10e5 K and it nearly matches the composition of the Sun's photosphere. The slow solar wind is twice as dense and more variable in intensity than the fast solar wind. The slow wind also has a more complex structure, with turbulent regions and large-scale structures.

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records. Reported in “solar flux units”, (s.f.u.), the F10.7 can vary from below 50 s.f.u., to above 300 s.f.u., over the course of a solar cycle.

Flares

Flares

A solar flare is a sudden flash of brightness observed over the Sun's surface or the solar limb, which is interpreted as a large energy release of up to 6 × 10e25 joules of energy. They are often, but not always, followed by a colossal coronal mass ejection. The flare ejects clouds of electrons, ions, and atoms through the corona of the sun into space. These clouds typically reach Earth a day or two after the event.

Solar flares affect all layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona), when the plasma medium is heated to tens of millions of kelvin, while the electrons, protons, and heavier ions are accelerated to near the speed of light. They produce radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum at all wavelengths, from radio waves to gamma rays, although most of the energy is spread over frequencies outside the visual range and for this reason the majority of the flares are not visible to the naked eye and must be observed with special instruments. Flares occur in active regions around sunspots, where intense magnetic fields penetrate the photosphere to link the corona to the solar interior. Flares are powered by the sudden (timescales of minutes to tens of minutes) release of magnetic energy stored in the corona. The same energy releases may produce coronal mass ejections (CME), although the relation between CMEs and flares is still not well established.

The frequency of occurrence of solar flares varies, from several per day when the Sun is particularly "active" to less than one every week when the Sun is "quiet", following the 11-year cycle (the solar cycle). Large flares are less frequent than smaller ones.

Classification

Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X according to the peak flux (in watts per square metre, W/m2) of 100 to 800 picometre X-rays near Earth, as measured on the GOES spacecraft.

Classification Peak Flux Range at 100-800 picometer
W/m2
A < 10e-7
B 10e-7 to 10e-6
C 10e-6 to 10e-5
M 10e-5 to 10e-4
X 10e-4 to 10e-3
Z > 10e-3

An earlier flare classification is based on Hα spectral observations. The scheme uses both the intensity and emitting surface. The classification in intensity is qualitative, referring to the flares as: (f)aint, (n)ormal or (b)rilliant. The emitting surface is measured in terms of millionths of the hemisphere and is described below. (The total hemisphere area AH = 6.2 × 1012 km2.)

Classification Corrected area
(millionths of hemisphere)
S < 100
1 100 - 250
2 250 - 600
3 600 - 1200
4 > 1200

Sunspot number

Sunspots

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun that appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. They correspond to concentrations of magnetic field that inhibit convection and result in reduced surface temperature compared to the surrounding photosphere. Sunspots usually appear in pairs, with pair members of opposite magnetic polarity. The number of sunspots varies according to the approximately 11-year solar cycle.

Sunspot populations quickly rise and more slowly fall on an irregular cycle of 11 years, although significant variations in the number of sunspots attending the 11-year period are known over longer spans of time. For example, from 1900 to the 1960s, the solar maxima trend of sunspot count has been upward; from the 1960s to the present, it has diminished somewhat. Over the last decades the Sun has had a markedly high average level of sunspot activity; it was last similarly active over 8,000 years ago.

The number of sunspots correlates with the intensity of solar radiation over the period since 1979, when satellite measurements of absolute radiative flux became available. Since sunspots are darker than the surrounding photosphere it might be expected that more sunspots would lead to less solar radiation and a decreased solar constant. However, the surrounding margins of sunspots are brighter than the average, and so are hotter; overall, more sunspots increase the Sun's solar constant or brightness. The variation caused by the sunspot cycle to solar output is relatively small, on the order of 0.1% of the solar constant (a peak-to-trough range of 1.3 W/m2 compared to 1366 W/m2 for the average solar constant).

K-indices



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3. 33 - 1. 00 - 1.



Data


Estimated Planetary

Estimated Planetary

Date A K-indices (UTC)
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h
2024-09-19 20 4. 67 2. 67 2.
2024-09-20 7 1. 33 1. 33 1.
2024-09-21 6 2. 00 2. 00 2.
2024-09-22 5 1. 33 0. 67 0.
2024-09-23 13 1. 67 1. 00 1.
2024-09-24 17 3. 67 2. 67 2.
2024-09-25 32 4. 33 5. 00 4.
2024-09-26 13 4. 33 3. 67 2.
2024-09-27 7 1. 67 2. 67 2.
2024-09-28 7 0. 33 0. 33 1.
2024-09-29 16 3. 33 2. 67 3.
2024-09-30 11 4. 33 2. 00 1.
2024-10-01 6 2. 33 2. 33 1.
2024-10-02 7 2. 67 2. 33 1.
2024-10-03 8 1. 33 1. 67 2.
2024-10-04 8 2. 33 1. 67 1.
2024-10-05 7 2. 67 1. 33 2.
2024-10-06 16 1. 67 1. 00 2.
2024-10-07 55 5. 33 4. 67 3.
2024-10-08 58 6. 67 7. 33 5.
2024-10-09 19 4. 00 4. 67 4.
2024-10-10 96 2. 00 2. 67 1.
2024-10-11 16 8. 00 7. 67 8.
2024-10-12 20 3. 67 2. 00 2.
2024-10-13 5 1. 67 1. 33 1.
2024-10-14 8 1. 00 1. 00 2.
2024-10-15 15 3. 33 2. 67 4.
2024-10-16 15 2. 33 3. 00 3.
2024-10-17 9 3. 33 3. 00 2.
2024-10-18 8 3. 33 - 1. 00 - 1.

Middle Latitude

Date A K-indices
2024-09-19 15 4 2 1 3 4 3 3 2
2024-09-20 6 1 1 0 2 2 2 2 3
2024-09-21 6 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1
2024-09-22 3 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 1
2024-09-23 9 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 2
2024-09-24 12 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4
2024-09-25 24 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3
2024-09-26 11 4 3 2 2 3 2 2 0
2024-09-27 5 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 0
2024-09-28 5 0 0 1 1 2 3 2 2
2024-09-29 17 3 2 4 4 4 2 2 3
2024-09-30 9 3 1 1 1 3 3 2 2
2024-10-01 5 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1
2024-10-02 6 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1
2024-10-03 8 0 1 1 2 4 2 2 2
2024-10-04 6 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3
2024-10-05 8 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 2
2024-10-06 13 1 1 3 2 3 3 3 4
2024-10-07 33 4 4 3 5 5 4 5 4
2024-10-08 29 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 4
2024-10-09 15 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 2
2024-10-10 50 2 2 1 2 3 7 6 7
2024-10-11 68 6 7 7 5 6 4 3 3
2024-10-12 16 3 1 3 4 4 2 4 2
2024-10-13 3 1 1 0 2 2 1 0
2024-10-14 6 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 3
2024-10-15 9 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 1
2024-10-16 11 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 2
2024-10-17 7 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
2024-10-18 2

High Latitude

Date A K-indices
2024-09-19 39 3 4 2 6 6 6 3 2
2024-09-20 6 1 1 2 3 0 1 2 2
2024-09-21 7 2 1 3 3 0 1 2 1
2024-09-22 4 1 0 0 3 1 2 1 0
2024-09-23 24 1 0 0 5 6 5 2 1
2024-09-24 27 3 3 3 5 5 5 3 3
2024-09-25 56 4 4 6 6 5 7 4 3
2024-09-26 16 3 4 3 4 4 3 1 0
2024-09-27 18 1 2 4 5 5 2 0 0
2024-09-28 13 0 0 2 4 3 5 1 1
2024-09-29 20 2 2 5 5 4 2 2 2
2024-09-30 8 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 2
2024-10-01 3 1 2 1 0 0 2 1 1
2024-10-02 2 1 2 5 5 0 1
2024-10-03 7 0 1 1 3 3 2 2 1
2024-10-04 3 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 2
2024-10-05 4 2 0 2 1 1 1 1 1
2024-10-06 7 1 0 2 2 2 2 2 3
2024-10-07 67 4 4 4 7 7 5 6 5
2024-10-08 73 5 6 8 6 5 5 4 3
2024-10-09 34 3 4 6 5 4 5 3 3
2024-10-10 16 3 3 2 4 6 9 8 7
2024-10-11 23 5 7 9 6 8 5 3 3
2024-10-12 33 4 2 2 7 5 3 3 2
2024-10-13 4 1 0 0 2 3 1 1
2024-10-14 6 1 0 3 2 2 1 1 2
2024-10-15 27 2 2 6 4 5 4 3 2
2024-10-16 31 1 2 6 5 5 5 2 2
2024-10-17 10 2 4 4 1 1 2 1 1
2024-10-18 2

About

The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0–9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval. The label K comes from the German word Kennziffer meaning “characteristic digit”. The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938.

The Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index is derived at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center using data from the following ground-based magnetometers:

  • Sitka, Alaska
  • Meanook, Canada
  • Ottawa, Canada
  • Fredericksburg, Virginia
  • Hartland, UK
  • Wingst, Germany
  • Niemegk, Germany
  • Canberra, Australia

These data are made available thanks to the cooperative efforts between SWPC and data providers around the world, which currently includes the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN), the British Geological Survey, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), and Geoscience Australia. Important magnetometer observations are also contributed by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris and the Korean Space Weather Center K-index Watches are issued when the highest predicted NOAA estimated Kp-indices for a day are K = 5, 6, 7, or >= 8 and is reported in terms of the NOAA G scale. K-index Warnings are issued when NOAA estimated Kp-indices of 4, 5, 6, and 7 or greater are expected. K-index Alerts are issued when the NOAA estimated Kp-indices reach 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.


More info
Data source: NOAA, Wikipedia

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