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Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for Beaumaris Weather Station


Beaumaris Weather ( Upper East Coast Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every 3 hours daily using ( WxSim ).
Below are Tables comparing our onsite ( WxSim ) Forecast to our ( Actual Observations ) by Day + 7 Days.

Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - by GFS Runs  ( 00z - 06z - 12z - 18z )


WxSim vs Actual ( Min and Max ) Temperature Comparison by Day Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
All WxSim latest.csv data is injected into MySql Tables for each GFSz Run
( Minimum and Maximum Temps are Daily Min/Max from WxSim Temperature field )
( Note : Forecast Accuracy Comparison Records for the Tables below only began 03 July 2021 ( 2021-07-03 ) )

Early Morning - GFS 12z Run - ( 5:15 AEDT )

      Min Date :   Sat 03 Jul 2021              Max Date :   Sat 17 Jan 2026    ( on Record )
Select Dates :                         
            Total Days Selected :               Total Days on Record : 1660

( If ± 2.0° C          ) or ( if ± 5.0° C          ) or ( if between   +/-   )
Note : Use Scroll bar below Table to View out to 7 Plus Days
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4 Day +5 Day +6 Day +7
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date  WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act 
2026-01-17 19.2 12.3 19.3 13.0 20.0 13.4 23.5 14.1 24.2 12.9 21.7 13.0 24.8 11.2 27.6 13.4
2026-01-16 17.6 -2.1 19.7 13.6 -0.4 14.0 19.5 12.0 19.3 12.0 20.3 13.2 22.0 14.0 24.2 14.5 18.0 13.2 20.7 10.9
2026-01-15 20.4 -1.4 21.8 13.4 -1.9 15.3 19.0 -0.7 19.7 13.1 -0.9 14.0 19.1 12.1 19.7 12.1 19.4 13.4 22.8 14.6 25.2 12.9 24.9 14.2
2026-01-14 18.9 1.3 17.6 14.3 -0.6 14.9 16.9 -4.9 21.8 13.2 -2.1 15.3 17.9 -1.8 19.7 11.9 -2.1 14.0 17.9 11.8 18.3 12.6 20.3 14.0 23.4 15.6 24.3 15.6
2026-01-13 23.7 1.3 22.4 10.1 -0.1 10.2 18.8 1.2 17.6 14.3 -0.6 14.9 17.0 -4.8 21.8 14.0 -1.3 15.3 18.6 -1.1 19.7 12.6 -1.4 14.0 18.6 12.4 19.8 12.6 22.1 13.3 25.2 14.9
2026-01-12 24.6 -1.3 25.9 8.0 0.4 7.6 23.6 1.2 22.4 11.9 1.7 10.2 18.0 0.4 17.6 13.9 -1.0 14.9 16.9 -4.9 21.8 12.8 -2.5 15.3 18.5 -1.2 19.7 11.9 -2.1 14.0 17.6 11.8 15.7 12.8 17.9 15.1
2026-01-11 21.7 0.5 21.2 10.1 -1.1 11.2 25.0 -0.9 25.9 10.2 2.6 7.6 24.5 2.1 22.4 11.4 1.2 10.2 18.6 1.0 17.6 13.2 -1.7 14.9 18.0 -3.8 21.8 12.9 -2.4 15.3 19.5 -0.2 19.7 12.8 -1.2 14.0 20.1 12.8 23.1 12.8
2026-01-10 24.3 -1.0 25.3 13.5 0.1 13.4 21.3 0.1 21.2 9.5 -1.7 11.2 24.8 -1.1 25.9 9.3 1.7 7.6 24.1 1.7 22.4 12.4 2.2 10.2 21.5 3.9 17.6 14.6 -0.3 14.9 18.9 -2.9 21.8 13.0 -2.3 15.3 21.7 2.0 19.7 11.4 -2.6 14.0 20.2 10.7
2026-01-09 26.2 1.9 24.3 15.9 -0.2 16.1 24.4 -0.9 25.3 12.9 -0.5 13.4 21.3 0.1 21.2 8.6 -2.6 11.2 24.2 -1.7 25.9 10.2 2.6 7.6 23.2 0.8 22.4 11.2 1.0 10.2 17.7 0.1 17.6 13.3 -1.6 14.9 18.3 -3.5 21.8 12.4 -2.9 15.3 14.5 -5.2 19.7 11.4 -2.6 14.0
2026-01-08 27.3 0.6 26.7 17.7 0.5 17.2 26.4 2.1 24.3 16.1 0.0 16.1 24.3 -1.0 25.3 13.9 0.5 13.4 20.7 -0.5 21.2 9.1 -2.1 11.2 24.9 -1.0 25.9 8.4 0.8 7.6 22.7 0.3 22.4 11.2 1.0 10.2 18.5 0.9 17.6 13.2 -1.7 14.9 21.2 -0.6 21.8 13.9 -1.4 15.3
Results  WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act 
# Succ 8 9 6 6 5 5 5 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1
% Succ 88.9 100.0 75.0 75.0 71.4 71.4 83.3 33.3 60.0 60.0 75.0 75.0 66.7 33.3 50.0 50.0
Ave Error 1.3 0.6 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.9 2.0
Net Error 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.9 -0.5 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -1.0 -0.2 -2.4 -2.9 -2.0
Std Dev 1.4 0.7 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 2.4 0.5 2.3 0.6

Late Morning - GFS 18z Run - ( 11:15 AEDT )

      Min Date :   Sat 03 Jul 2021              Max Date :   Sat 17 Jan 2026    ( on Record )
Select Dates :                         
            Total Days Selected :               Total Days on Record : 1660

( If ± 2.0° C          ) or ( if ± 5.0° C          ) or ( if between   +/-   )
Note : Use Scroll bar below Table to View out to 7 Plus Days
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4 Day +5 Day +6 Day +7
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date  WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act 
2026-01-17 19.1 11.7 19.1 12.5 21.5 14.2 24.3 14.7 24.0 12.0 21.7 13.6 26.6 13.2 30.6 13.6
2026-01-16 18.4 -1.3 19.7 12.1 -1.9 14.0 18.9 11.7 18.4 11.8 21.1 13.6 23.2 14.2 24.4 12.8 20.4 13.3 23.1 12.1
2026-01-15 20.8 -1.0 21.8 12.8 -2.5 15.3 18.0 -1.7 19.7 12.1 -1.9 14.0 18.7 11.7 19.2 12.8 20.0 14.3 24.4 15.1 26.1 13.5 25.9 13.8
2026-01-14 18.1 0.5 17.6 13.7 -1.2 14.9 17.9 -3.9 21.8 12.8 -2.5 15.3 17.8 -1.9 19.7 11.6 -2.4 14.0 17.9 12.0 18.7 12.9 20.5 14.2 22.3 15.8 24.5 16.7
2026-01-13 22.3 -0.1 22.4 12.6 2.4 10.2 18.8 1.2 17.6 13.7 -1.2 14.9 17.6 -4.2 21.8 13.1 -2.2 15.3 19.0 -0.7 19.7 12.0 -2.0 14.0 18.6 12.2 18.6 12.9 19.5 13.9 18.9 15.4
2026-01-12 26.1 0.2 25.9 9.5 1.9 7.6 23.4 1.0 22.4 12.6 2.4 10.2 19.0 1.4 17.6 14.1 -0.8 14.9 16.6 -5.2 21.8 13.1 -2.2 15.3 19.4 -0.3 19.7 12.4 -1.6 14.0 17.9 11.3 17.6 11.9 16.7 13.5
2026-01-11 23.6 2.4 21.2 9.2 -2.0 11.2 23.2 -2.7 25.9 9.5 1.9 7.6 23.8 1.4 22.4 10.3 0.1 10.2 18.5 0.9 17.6 14.4 -0.5 14.9 18.5 -3.3 21.8 13.0 -2.3 15.3 18.9 -0.8 19.7 11.9 -2.1 14.0 17.8 10.6 20.8 9.9
2026-01-10 24.1 -1.2 25.3 13.2 -0.2 13.4 20.9 -0.3 21.2 9.2 -2.0 11.2 24.1 -1.8 25.9 10.1 2.5 7.6 24.8 2.4 22.4 11.6 1.4 10.2 18.1 0.5 17.6 14.1 -0.8 14.9 17.3 -4.5 21.8 12.9 -2.4 15.3 17.5 -2.2 19.7 12.0 -2.0 14.0 16.8 10.3
2026-01-09 22.9 -1.4 24.3 14.9 -1.2 16.1 24.2 -1.1 25.3 13.3 -0.1 13.4 21.1 -0.1 21.2 9.2 -2.0 11.2 24.3 -1.6 25.9 10.2 2.6 7.6 23.9 1.5 22.4 11.3 1.1 10.2 18.5 0.9 17.6 13.1 -1.8 14.9 19.1 -2.7 21.8 13.1 -2.2 15.3 17.7 -2.0 19.7 13.3 -0.7 14.0
2026-01-08 25.8 -0.9 26.7 16.1 -1.1 17.2 25.6 1.3 24.3 14.9 -1.2 16.1 24.2 -1.1 25.3 13.1 -0.3 13.4 21.0 -0.2 21.2 9.3 -1.9 11.2 23.9 -2.0 25.9 9.8 2.2 7.6 21.1 -1.3 22.4 11.5 1.3 10.2 20.4 2.8 17.6 13.2 -1.7 14.9 22.1 0.3 21.8 11.1 -4.2 15.3
Results  WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act 
# Succ 8 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 0 2 2 1
% Succ 88.9 77.8 75.0 75.0 85.7 57.1 66.7 66.7 80.0 60.0 75.0 50.0 0.0 66.7 100.0 50.0
Ave Error 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.6 2.0 1.2 2.5
Net Error -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.3 -1.4 -1.3 -0.7 -2.0 -0.9 -2.5
Std Dev 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.5 2.5 0.2 1.2 1.8

Afternoon - GFS 00z Run - ( 17:15 AEDT )

      Min Date :   Sat 03 Jul 2021              Max Date :   Fri 16 Jan 2026    ( on Record )
Select Dates :                         
            Total Days Selected :               Total Days on Record : 1659

( If ± 2.0° C          ) or ( if ± 5.0° C          ) or ( if between   +/-   )
Note : Use Scroll bar below Table to View out to 7 Plus Days
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4 Day +5 Day +6 Day +7
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date  WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act 
2026-01-16 18.7 12.1 18.5 12.4 18.8 12.7 20.6 13.9 23.3 14.4 24.4 13.5 21.8 13.0 23.5 12.3
2026-01-15 19.3 -2.5 21.8 14.0 -1.3 15.3 18.4 12.1 18.9 12.3 20.3 13.3 20.2 14.2 23.8 14.7 25.0 12.0 25.2 12.7
2026-01-14 18.3 0.7 17.6 13.6 -1.3 14.9 17.1 -4.7 21.8 14.0 -1.3 15.3 17.8 13.0 18.4 12.5 19.0 13.1 20.2 14.4 24.1 15.5 26.2 15.0
2026-01-13 23.0 0.6 22.4 11.3 1.1 10.2 18.3 0.7 17.6 13.6 -1.3 14.9 16.9 -4.9 21.8 12.7 -2.6 15.3 18.7 12.3 18.5 12.3 18.2 13.0 18.9 14.1 18.5 15.7
2026-01-12 24.1 -1.8 25.9 10.0 2.4 7.6 23.0 0.6 22.4 11.3 1.1 10.2 19.4 1.8 17.6 13.3 -1.6 14.9 16.9 -4.9 21.8 12.7 -2.6 15.3 17.9 12.3 17.8 12.3 18.2 12.6 19.9 13.8
2026-01-11 21.3 0.1 21.2 8.7 -2.5 11.2 24.1 -1.8 25.9 10.0 2.4 7.6 23.8 1.4 22.4 11.7 1.5 10.2 18.3 0.7 17.6 13.9 -1.0 14.9 18.5 -3.3 21.8 12.5 -2.8 15.3 19.9 11.0 21.1 11.9 23.0 12.4
2026-01-10 24.1 -1.2 25.3 12.3 -1.1 13.4 21.3 0.1 21.2 8.7 -2.5 11.2 24.3 -1.6 25.9 9.4 1.8 7.6 25.0 2.6 22.4 10.5 0.3 10.2 17.0 -0.6 17.6 13.6 -1.3 14.9 18.1 -3.7 21.8 13.0 -2.3 15.3 19.3 12.0 20.0 12.1
2026-01-09 26.6 2.3 24.3 14.8 -1.3 16.1 24.1 -1.2 25.3 13.1 -0.3 13.4 21.5 0.3 21.2 10.1 -1.1 11.2 24.5 -1.4 25.9 10.3 2.7 7.6 23.6 1.2 22.4 12.4 2.2 10.2 18.1 0.5 17.6 12.8 -2.1 14.9 18.2 -3.6 21.8 13.1 -2.2 15.3 17.1 12.6
2026-01-08 29.6 2.9 26.7 16.1 -1.1 17.2 26.6 2.3 24.3 14.8 -1.3 16.1 24.6 -0.7 25.3 13.7 0.3 13.4 22.2 1.0 21.2 9.4 -1.8 11.2 24.1 -1.8 25.9 9.7 2.1 7.6 22.8 0.4 22.4 10.6 0.4 10.2 19.3 1.7 17.6 13.6 -1.3 14.9 23.3 1.5 21.8 13.2 -2.1 15.3
2026-01-07 36.8 -0.2 37.0 13.6 0.9 12.7 29.6 2.9 26.7 17.7 0.5 17.2 28.1 3.8 24.3 16.9 0.8 16.1 25.4 0.1 25.3 12.7 -0.7 13.4 22.8 1.6 21.2 8.4 -2.8 11.2 24.5 -1.4 25.9 10.0 2.4 7.6 22.6 0.2 22.4 13.6 3.4 10.2 17.5 -0.1 17.6 11.9 -3.0 14.9
Results  WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act 
# Succ 6 7 5 6 5 6 4 4 4 1 3 1 2 1 2 0
% Succ 66.7 77.8 62.5 75.0 71.4 85.7 66.7 66.7 80.0 20.0 75.0 25.0 66.7 33.3 100.0 0.0
Ave Error 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.3 2.1 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.7 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.3 0.8 2.6
Net Error 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -1.1 -0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -2.6
Std Dev 1.7 1.5 2.3 1.5 2.6 1.5 2.4 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.5 0.8 0.4

Late Evening - GFS 06z Run - ( 23:15 AEDT )

      Min Date :   Sat 03 Jul 2021              Max Date :   Sat 17 Jan 2026    ( on Record )
Select Dates :                         
            Total Days Selected :               Total Days on Record : 1660

( If ± 2.0° C          ) or ( if ± 5.0° C          ) or ( if between   +/-   )
Note : Use Scroll bar below Table to View out to 7 Plus Days
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3 Day +4 Day +5 Day +6 Day +7
± 2.0° C High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date  WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act   WS   Dif   Act 
2026-01-17 18.5 13.3 19.3 13.0 20.7 14.1 23.8 14.3 24.9 11.8 21.1 13.5 23.4 11.2 28.1 12.7
2026-01-16 18.3 -1.4 19.7 13.1 -0.9 14.0 18.4 12.9 19.3 12.9 20.7 14.1 23.9 14.6 24.9 11.9 21.1 13.4 23.4 11.1
2026-01-15 19.7 -2.1 21.8 14.9 -0.4 15.3 18.1 -1.6 19.7 12.6 -1.4 14.0 19.8 12.7 21.4 13.2 20.9 14.3 24.3 14.3 25.9 11.6 18.4 14.6
2026-01-14 18.4 0.8 17.6 14.5 -0.4 14.9 19.8 -2.0 21.8 14.7 -0.6 15.3 19.0 -0.7 19.7 13.2 -0.8 14.0 18.4 12.9 19.1 13.0 19.4 13.9 22.8 14.7 25.9 14.1
2026-01-13 23.9 1.5 22.4 9.6 -0.6 10.2 18.1 0.5 17.6 14.1 -0.8 14.9 16.6 -5.2 21.8 13.3 -2.0 15.3 17.7 -2.0 19.7 12.2 -1.8 14.0 18.0 11.7 18.4 12.5 19.3 13.9 19.6 15.4
2026-01-12 24.5 -1.4 25.9 9.4 1.8 7.6 23.8 1.4 22.4 10.9 0.7 10.2 19.2 1.6 17.6 14.2 -0.7 14.9 17.1 -4.7 21.8 13.4 -1.9 15.3 18.4 -1.3 19.7 13.1 -0.9 14.0 19.3 12.4 19.0 13.0 19.3 13.8
2026-01-11 21.5 0.3 21.2 10.8 -0.4 11.2 24.3 -1.6 25.9 10.5 2.9 7.6 23.8 1.4 22.4 11.9 1.7 10.2 18.0 0.4 17.6 14.2 -0.7 14.9 18.9 -2.9 21.8 13.0 -2.3 15.3 20.6 0.9 19.7 11.0 -3.0 14.0 17.9 11.2 15.5 12.0
2026-01-10 24.4 -0.9 25.3 14.4 1.0 13.4 21.5 0.3 21.2 10.4 -0.8 11.2 25.0 -0.9 25.9 10.6 3.0 7.6 24.7 2.3 22.4 11.3 1.1 10.2 17.8 0.2 17.6 14.6 -0.3 14.9 16.3 -5.5 21.8 12.9 -2.4 15.3 19.6 -0.1 19.7 12.3 -1.7 14.0 20.6 10.4
2026-01-09 27.6 3.3 24.3 15.8 -0.3 16.1 25.0 -0.3 25.3 14.1 0.7 13.4 21.7 0.5 21.2 10.1 -1.1 11.2 25.2 -0.7 25.9 10.0 2.4 7.6 23.7 1.3 22.4 12.5 2.3 10.2 19.6 2.0 17.6 12.7 -2.2 14.9 21.4 -0.4 21.8 11.7 -3.6 15.3 21.4 1.7 19.7 11.5 -2.5 14.0
2026-01-08 28.7 2.0 26.7 17.0 -0.2 17.2 27.7 3.4 24.3 15.9 -0.2 16.1 24.6 -0.7 25.3 13.5 0.1 13.4 21.6 0.4 21.2 9.5 -1.7 11.2 23.5 -2.4 25.9 10.5 2.9 7.6 22.6 0.2 22.4 12.3 2.1 10.2 18.7 1.1 17.6 13.7 -1.2 14.9 15.9 -5.9 21.8 13.3 -2.0 15.3
Results  WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act   WS  Stats  Act 
# Succ 7 9 7 7 6 6 4 5 3 2 3 0 3 2 1 1
% Succ 77.8 100.0 87.5 87.5 85.7 85.7 66.7 83.3 60.0 40.0 75.0 0.0 100.0 66.7 50.0 50.0
Ave Error 1.5 0.7 1.4 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.4 0.5 2.2 3.8 2.3
Net Error 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.6 0.0 -0.7 -0.4 -1.0 0.3 -0.6 -1.4 0.2 -2.2 -2.1 -2.3
Std Dev 1.7 0.8 1.7 1.3 2.1 1.6 2.2 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.9 2.0 0.6 1.0 3.8 0.2